thinking: relating- celebrating :-)

A key benefit of the book, The Last Oil Shock book by David Strahan, is found in the last two chapters in which he recommends a series of local and personal actions for urgent changes needed to survive this major threat.

In a chapter called “Pass-notes for Policy Makers” the book makes a broad recommendation to prepare as much as possible for the coming crunch by changing our consumption behaviours and managing our exposure to the main risk factors.

He also notes (quoting Thierry Desmarest – CEO of Total in 2006) that voluntarily reducing consumption by half could delay the expected peak by up to 10 years; however- we all know that this is highly unlikely without a massive epiphany.

Global warming* and the need for carbon management has now widely entered the public consciousness – peak oil needs to do the same.

Here are 7 things that you can start doing now.

1. Educate yourself and your friends and vote accordingly. More articles here
2. Make your own action plans for your country (check the Oil depletion atlas and file – Forecasts here. For example Asia-Pacific region, New Zealand Oil peak forecast year 2008, Australia – peaked in 2000, Japan peaked in 1992, USA peaked in 1970 while Canada is predicted to peak in 2034. Example spreadsheet from Energyfiles for New Zealand – others available.
3. Reduce your own personal exposure to oil and energy shocks by reducing use of such resources. (Use more public transport, drive less, become a town planner and stop those idiot developers building carpark based shopping malls in the middle of nowhere – you get the idea.) More examples here try reducing by 3% each year.
4. Use renewable energy sources where you can.
5. Pressure politicians by finding out what their energy policies are and what they plan to do about the impacts of peak oil.
6. Support public transport changes such as changing from diesel powered trains to electric in Auckland for example.
7. Pressure for policy changes on roading and transport projects.

What we need to do now to to move from general actions towards specific actions in each country. As I live in New Zealand I am particularly interested in what can be done here at both the political level and the personal one.

What Is Your Local Energy Profile?

The New Zealand Energy Data File is available online website at MED.

• Total primary energy supply decreased from 747 PJ (petajoules) in 2005 to 741 PJ in 2006, a 0.8% decrease;
• Coal production increased 9.7%, from 139 PJ in 2005 to 153 PJ in 2006. Coal consumption for electricity generation decreased 4.8% to 52PJ from 2005 to 2006 and remained about the same for other sectors;
• Total electricity generation increased 0.9% to 42,056 GWh (gigawatt hours) in 2006. Renewable electricity generation accounted for 66% of total electricity generation;
• Natural gas production increased by 2.0% in 2006 to 163 PJ;
• Total national consumption of petrol and diesel remained relatively constant around 221 PJ. During this period:
  Premium petrol was 24 PJ, up 5.9%
  Regular petrol was 89 PJ, down 1.4%
  Diesel was 108 PJ, up 0.7%

What about New Zealand’s position on Peak Oil?

The following exchange of questions comes from a New Zealand parlimentary debate on 26th July 2007 between the Jeanette Fizsimons -Co-leader of the Greens and the Government Finance Minister. (Green links on Peak Oil here.)

“What economic and fiscal strategies is he developing to prepare New Zealand for the impact of an “extremely tight” oil market within 5 years where oil production may not be able to keep up with demand, as predicted by the International Energy Agency’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report earlier this month?”

Dr MICHAEL CULLEN (Minister of Finance) : “Low debt and projected surpluses give New Zealanders as much fiscal flexibility to respond to changing circumstances as almost any other developed country has. The development of an emissions trading system, and measures to support energy efficiency, to support biofuels, and to support passenger transport will help directly. Of course, as oil prices rise, individuals also react, by, in fact, adjusting to more efficient vehicles.”

Jeanette Fitzsimons: Will he discuss with his colleague the Minister of Energy the need to amend this statement in the draft New Zealand *Energy Strategy: “It is unclear whether conventional oil production will peak in the next decade, or a decade or two later.” so that it reflects a greater sense of urgency, given that the Government has always relied on the *International Energy Agency’s fool’s paradise view that we still have around three decades until peak oil, despite all the other views to the contrary?

Dr MICHAEL CULLEN: “I do not propose to do that at this stage, at all. I am old enough to remember the report from the **Club of Rome in, I think, 1975, stating that we would have run out of oil by this point. In fact, proven commercial oil reserves now are still larger than they were 20 years ago.”

Later in this exchange Cullen notes that

Petrol prices at the pump now are significantly lower in real terms than they were, for example, in the early 1980s. It is not as though we have not been through these kinds of variables before. It is important to remember that other countries are going through the same experience…..

Jeanette Fitzsimons: Can the Minister place on record, then, that he expects the current rise in oil prices to be a temporary phenomenon, just as the oil price rises in the 1970s were, and that it does not signal a long-term depletion of oil supply?

Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN: I thought it was very clear from what I said that that was not what I was saying, at all—in fact, rather the opposite. I said that I expect that there are long-term pricing signals here that will lead to significant change in behaviour and practices by individuals, by business, and by others.

Jeanette Fitzsimons: I seek leave to table an article quoting *Goldman Sachs Group headed: “$100 oil price may be months away says..”

Frankly – it doesn’t seem that reassuring to me. Latest prices for oil are here

A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas – Working Draft US

This is from the National Petroleum Council in the U.S and is a major report called “Facing the Hard Truths About Energy,” which involved 350 participants and was led by former Exxon Mobil chairman Lee Raymond. (Exec Summary pdf.) July 18, 2007.

These 5 key recommendations are also referred to as “5 core U.S Strategies” :

1. Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses.
2. Expand and diversify production from clean coal, nuclear, biomass, other renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas; moderate the decline of conventional domestic oil and gas production; and increase access for development of new resources.
3. Integrate energy policy into trade, economic, environmental, security, and foreign policies; strengthen global energy trade and investment; and broaden dialogue with both producing and consuming nations to improve global energy security.
4. Enhance science and engineering capabilities and create long-term opportunities for research and development in all phases of the energy supply and demand-system.
5. Develop the legal and regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In addition, as policymakers consider options to reduce CO2 emissions, provide an effective, global framework for carbon management, including establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for CO2 emissions

The Council identified these strategies by drawing upon more than 350 expert participants with wide-ranging backgrounds to provide analysis, information, and insight. Additionally, extensive outreach efforts involved more than 1,000 people actively involved in energy. Task Groups for this study reviewed a broad range of public and aggregated proprietary studies in order to understand and evaluate the many assumptions and forces behind recent global energy projections.

Given the massive scale of the global energy system and the long lead times necessary to make significant changes, concerted actions are needed now to promote U.S. competitiveness by balancing economic, security, and environmental goals. (Slide show version here.)

More International Research

Here are 80 global Energy Reports from UK based Energy Pointers including a A 218-page Australian Senate Standing Committee report examining Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels. There is plenty of reading so you can write your own action plans.

A solar policy success story in Germany

In a promising example of how to encourage alternative energy use Germany has managed to mobilise thousands of people to take part in generating electricity via solar in a massive public policy

“Even though millions of Germans flee their damp, dark homeland for holidays in the Mediterranean sun, 55 percent of the world’s photovoltaic (PV) power is generated on solar panels set up between the Baltic Sea and the Black Forest.

So far just 3 percent of Germany’s electricity comes from the sun, but the government wants to raise the share of renewables to 27 percent of all energy by 2020 from 13 percent.”

“There are now 250,000 jobs in Germany in the renewables energy sector. Asbeck expects the number of jobs in solar power alone to double to 90,000 over the next five years and hit 200,000 in 2020.”

They passed a law (EEG) which has helped change behaviour immensely. This is the most interesting part of the story. Perhaps we can learn from Germany on what the best mix of public policies and practical logistics is so that we change global energy behaviours. The incredible thing is that solar energy is not that suited to the German weather patterns and so other countries with more sunshine could do even better.

Also a 40MW solar plant is under construction right now and expected to be completed by 2009.

“Construction on a 40 megawatt (MW) solar generation power plant is under way at a former military base in the Saxon region of Germany. The total surface area of the planned photovoltaic (PV) installation? It’s comparable to about 200 soccer fields, said Matthias Willenbacher, cofounder and CEO of the juwi group.”

Germany takes second place only to Japan in the world in photovoltaic power generation.

Japan leads the world in solar innovation for example spherical-shaped solar cells which is well worth exploring in a later piece.

In Melbourne, Australia a company called Solar Systems has received government funding to proceed with construction of a 154-megawatt solar power station in Victoria. It will be the bigest if the world if completed. There are also major solar projects (150Mw) in Algeria that have been announced recently although the lead times are very long.

Useful links for Tracking Oil related Topics in New Zealand

• Oil Archive on Scoop
• Energy Policy Archive on Scoop
• ASPO Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in New Zealand.
• Futures Trust
• Crown Minerals Petroleum Outlook for New Zealand
• Draft New Zealand Energy Strategy final version to be presented in September

Small Oil Find in NZ

The new Tui oil field doesn’t figure in the Energyfiles data as it is new, offshore and although estimates are promising – relatively unproven. Production started on 30th of July 2008. It is expected to produce 50,000 barrels a day and 10m barrels in the first year. The exploration company last year capped a gas find in Canterbury as it wasn’t viable. Tui is part of a group of fields in the Taranaki basin that could be promising although other commentators are not so hopeful. The latest information on these finds is released to the ASX as noted here. Tui shipped its first 300,000 barrels to refineries in Australia just this week. The Great South Basin has a few people excited. ExxonMobil and OMV have committed up to $1.2b in exploration resources.

*Global warming now has major recognition now and there is even a book on the NZ effects called Hot Topic by Gareth Renowden. Using the latest evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report, Gareth Renowden puts climate change into its New Zealand context.

And here How vulnerable to oil shocks are we, really? from the Oil Drum

And an audio interview podcast between David Strahan and George Kenney at Electric Politics

And get informed read up on The Oil Depletion Protocol Project which is an initiative undertaken by Post Carbon Institute, in association with Richard Heinberg, to lay the groundwork for and facilitate the successful adoption and implementation of the Protocol.

This is Part 3 of a 4 part series. See these related posts in the series.

• (1) Green futures and the last oil shock
• (2) Why Alternative Energy Can’t Save Us from Peak Oil
• (3) How to Survive Peak Oil by Acting Locally – 7 ways (this one)
• (4) Some Conclusions on Peak Oil – Urgency Needed

See also

• NZ Energy Strategy
• and NZ Energy Strategy- Transport Summary

“last oil shock”, “David Strahan”, “peak oil theory”, “energy strategy”, “oil shock”

One of the standard responses from Government and Oil companies when faced with the peak oil scenarios is to say that alternative energy sources will make up the gap and we shouldn’t worry. Wrong!

This is Part 2 in a series on Energy futures and this post looks more closely at Chapter 4 of The Last Oil Shock, where author David Strahan goes through many of the alternative supply solutions and checks the math and underlying assumptions. In each case the alternative is too little and too late to really help much at all.

There are also some organisations concerned about climate change who believe the demise of big oil will somehow help reduce the damage from global warming. Oil accounts for less than 40% of total C02 emissions with the balance coming from coal and gas and so with a greater reliance on coal and gas it is extremely unlikely that the oil reduction will be that helpful.

As Strahan discusses most of these ideas are not well thought out and plain wrong.

For example 95% of oil uses are for transport where coal can’t help much and gas could help some (in transport) but gas supplies are highly linked to oil in most cases. Because we want the alternative sources to be “clean” this suggests that the two most feasible options would be hydrogen and biofuels.

Hydrogen – Not a Real Option
The most attractive idea from using hydrogen as an energy source for transport is that a hydrogen fuel cell is much more efficient than a conventional internal combustion engine. A figure of 18% is the useful energy to the wheels with a standard engine, whereas hydrogen offers the potential of 50% due to its much higher efficiency and the lower number of moving parts which reduces friction loss etc. however it is not that easy.

On the minus side the expense of hydrogen technology means it could be 10 years before cars could be below $100k in price which means that won’t help most of us. Safety and the need of plenty of storage space are also issues. Ultimately (fuller details in the book) Hydrogen needs to be super cooled as a gas at -240 ‘C however the trade off is that uses 30% of the energy value and this means that the energy efficiency is back down at 25% while a Toyota Prius is as high as 32%.

There are other ways of producing hydrogen but the short answer is hybrids* and even the new generation of diesels are better at the present time. We could use electricity to generate Hydrogen but the amount needed is prohibitive.

Strahan continues with the math and concludes that 81 gigawatts would be needed to replace current transport energy needs in the UK. As this is more than the current generating capacity in the U.K that is not an option.

Solar and Wind
Check pages 92 and 93 in the book for the math which includes calculations for wind, solar and nuclear with numbers that I haven’t personally checked but you are welcome to try. The short version is that using current technologies even if we could do it the amount of land area needed and the time it would take to get setup in measured in decades and we don’t have that long.

Strahan concludes

“hydrogen as a transport fuel seems to be utterly incapable of mitigating either global warming or the last oil shock…it might work in Iceland, where they have limitless hydro -electricity… but for the rest of the world its back to the drawing board”

Biofuels including Ethanol
We don’t eat enough fish and chips for this one to really help much. 300m litres of cooking oil is just too small compared to 25b litres of diesel needed in the U.K. The NZ numbers would be similar proportions but I’m all in favour of recycling that used frying oil. Alternative versions of biofuel such as biodiesel or bioethanol both generally require large amounts of land at the expense of food production.

A feature at Worldchanging suggests that bio-diesel from algae might be the best bet

“A single acre of algae ponds can produce 15,000gallons of biodiesel — in comparison, an acre of soybeans produces up to 50 gallons of biodiesel per acre, an acre of jatropha produces up to 200 gallons per acre, coconuts produce just under 300 gallons per acre, and palm oil — currently the best non-algal source — produces up to 650 gallons of biodiesel per acre. That is to say, algae is 25 times better a source for biodiesel than palm oil, and 300 times better than soy.”

Cellulosic ethanol might be the bright hope here as it is based on using waste byproducts and not so land hungry. However the amount of “waste” product is not as great as needed. Elsewhere in the book the Fischer-Tropsch process is discounted as a method of supply as well.

In New Zealand bio-ethanol blended petrol just launched comes as a byproduct of milk production from Fonterra via Gullso while it is not cellulosic ethanol it might succeed to some extent in delaying the full shock of oil prices at the pump.

See here for Consumer information from Energywise for NZ motorists.

Note from Dr David Haywood(Thanks David) – It seems likely that NZ *is* one of the few countries where biofuels for transport could be economical, thanks to our massive resource of dodgy-quality wood. See: here for more.

Brazil and Ethanol
The availability of sugar cane and 30 years of experience means that it has been a great success in Brazil but hard to scale up much further although the theoretical numbers are surprisingly high. After 30 years Brazil has replaced up to 30% of its transport needs from Ethanol which show how difficult a goal this is.

Strahan calculates would take 320m hectares to replace 2003 petrol consumption, which is more than 15 times the total area of land in cultivation for sugar cane in 2004. Given that petrol consumption is still growing and even if goals are more modest like a % of the total in countries like Brazil and where that makes sense it could help soothe the transition at least in part.

Consequently environmental, land use and social issues preclude sustainable ethanol production on a large scale for most countries. Bio-diesel from Jatropha is promising but the conclusion is similar. 359m hectares of land planted in that crop just isn’t feasible.

Ultimately with all of these alternatives we can’t come even close in the short term to replacing a significant level of energy for transport regardless of the methodology. We still need massive conservation to be part of any transition plan.

There is much more detail in the book , but you’ll need to buy it now. Hopefully you get a clearer idea of how rigorous the research has been and that arguments like hydrogen or bio-fuels saving the day are simply not correct.

However exploring alternative energy sources is good for business. This note is out of date now but even so the numbers are large and positive motivators for business.

Another Book Review
This comes from Mick Winter see here for more

“Strahan is first of all a superb journalist. He is objective in his facts, backs up his statements, and offers both breadth and depth in his account of Peak Oil. But Strahan also has a position; one which enhances, rather than obscures, his objectivity. His wry, even biting, sense of humor and his observation of the energy predicament’s ironies and, alas, frequent hypocrisies, come through in a manner that allows his facts to be enjoyable digested all the way through the book.

I highly recommend reading The Last Oil Shock.”

Mini Summary of the Books Key arguments
From this profile piece here is the shortest summary of the book I have found. Most of this post has just barely covered number 1.

1. Biofuels and hydrogen are utterly inadequate to make good the looming transport fuel deficit
2. How ‘running out’ of oil paradoxically will not help but worsen climate change
3. How traditional economics critically underestimates the importance of energy, and therefore the severity of the last oil shock.
4. Why governments, oil companies, and environmentalists oppose the idea, and why they are wrong
5. How the oil reserves of Middle East OPEC countries are almost certainly far smaller than claimed, meaning the global peak will come sooner rather than later
6. How the actions of oil companies belie their predicament, despite their publicly confident positions
7. How the invasion of Iraq was not ‘all about oil’, but all about peak oil.

*Note on Hybrids (Not in the book)
It seems to me that hybrids are great in theory but the cost differential is so high that in New Zealand at least you are still better to buy a much cheaper car and use the balance to pay for fuel. It may be different elsewhere but the going rate for a used hybrid like the Prius is around $25k. My calculations are very rough – in some places tax incentives make the deal better. See here for some more NZ background. To do the calculations properly you need to look at payments over 3-5 years and factor in fuel savings and price rises over that time. It may be for some people who commute larger distances that the payback from a hybrid would make sense.

A similar car could be obtained for $10k and even if/when fuel costs triple you can still buy a whole lot of petrol for the $15k difference. So although I would love a hybrid – suspect that the higher the price of petrol the higher the price (including resale value) of the hybrid goes.

Perhaps there are other technology advances like the pivotal engine which improves on two stroke technology for example. Now a 3 wheeledVespa equivalent with a pivotal engine – that could be something.

See also Why running out of oil could make climate change worse

This is Part 2 of a 4 part series. See these related posts in the series.

• (1) Green futures and the last oil shock
• (2) Why Alternative Energy Can’t Save Us from Peak Oil (this one)
• (3) How to Survive Peak Oil by Acting Locally – 7 ways
• (4) Some Conclusions on Peak Oil – Urgency Needed

See also

• NZ Energy Strategy
• and NZ Energy Strategy- Transport Summary

“last oil shock”, “David Strahan”, “peak oil theory”

At school my daughter is a very excited member of the Enviro Explorers who aim to treasure the environment while many of us parents drive them to school in huge gas guzzling cars. How shortsighted is that?

Incredibly it seems that despite 30 years of rising environmental awareness we still haven’t been convinced to significantly change our energy consumption behaviours.

In a video presentation on sustainability Alex Steffen makes the good point that we are currently using up enough resources to use up 5 planets worth (or more) and that the way that those resources are being used is also very unfair and extremely difficult to change.

John Doerr thinks that going green may be our “biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century” and his VC firm has invested US$200m in green-tech to try and find out. Both of these presentations are available on video at Ted.com

Despite better resources and greater need than ever – invitations by Alex Steffen and John Doerr to explore the bright green future are being downplayed while we continue to trash the planet.

What could be more important than global warming? Answer: Peak Oil

I’ve been reading The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan and it is a tough read because all of the usual arguments for technical progress (saving the day) are easily demolished. See also this piece by David on what the Stern Report got wrong.

“The Stern review on the economics of climate change completely fails to acknowledge the imminent decline in global oil production”

Despite the theory of peak oil having been around since 1956 many of us are still in extreme denial about what happens when oil prices quadruple or more. The change impacts that come from this when barrel prices are $70 now, but could easily get to $200-300/ per barrel – is so totally shocking that it is hard to think about.

Hubbert’s original peak oil theory was repeated by him using different models in 1962 and 1967 but it was not until the oil shocks of 1973 that his and others analysts warnings were taken seriously at all.

Our lifestyles and civilisation as we understand it is so closely tied to oil. Consider that for every barrel of oil we produce – we now consume 3. Or that 95% of oil reserves have been identified and largely extracted.

In very simple terms we running out of oil FAST and none of the other energy sources that have been trialled can replace the very high energy density of oil. Strahan backs up his test with research with and comes across as a thoroughly moderate and reasonable commentator on the subject.

Peak oil theory does attract some extreme views, which is not surprising for something that represents the end of a long expansionary phase in human history. However while some of the highly probable scenarios are depressing there are positive signs.

The subtitle of the book is “A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man.” It is an essential read for policy makers anywhere and those who care about their friends and families would do well to consider the personal implications of the action plans at the end of the book.

3 Book Reviews – (to buy your copy)

Paul Chefurka recommends the book.

“A recent Peak Oil book by David Strahan called The Last Oil Shock (which I cannot recommend highly enough) contains a pointer to an analysis that supports the worriers and discredits the economists’ optimism.”

Chefurka elaborates on the theories of Kummel and Ayres(1) who found a much better way to understand and explain the true economics of energy which is one of the more interesting parts of the book in Chapter 5 – First Principles. Paul also has another essay on his site in which he adds some thoughts on how we can understand some of this better if we compare it to the 5 stages of grieving scale (Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance) by Elizabeth Kubler-Ross which is a fairly serious kind of response.

All things considered Paul is at the pessimistic end of the spectrum and appears also somewhat overwhelmed by many of the linked problems which he details on his site if you are brave.

Graham Strouts gives the book full marks and disagrees with the continued use of nuclear power as supported by Strahan as part of the pass-notes for policy makers section. He concludes with (full review at Zone 5)

“The Last Oil Shock is another powerful voice in the peak oil debate and sets a new standard in investigative journalism for the issue”

From my reading of the book – it seems that nuclear energy is not being favoured per sae. It is more an issue of having such a wide energy deficit that extending or prolonging existing nuclear facilities in the UK may help manage the transition demand peaks. But then again Nuclear is also running out of supplies as well.

Chris Sanders has plenty to say about the book and the subject.

The idea that modern civilization is unthinkable without petroleum only arises when one contemplates life with a lot less of the stuff, which no doubt explains the urgency behind attempts to discredit the notion that world oil production might actually be a finite input to the world economy..

One of the merits of this book is that it tackles head-on the obvious linkages between current events in the Middle East, repository of the last truly great reserves of oil in the world, and the fact that the West has gone to war by invading Iraq…

War for oil is one Inconvenient Truth that Al Gore will happily avoid.

The idea that most growth is a function of ever-increasing amounts of energy being used (Kümmel and Hall) that is being more efficiently employed (Ayres) is revolutionary enough, if simple. The fact that the fraction of growth it is responsible for is many multiples of that added by capital and labour is an embarrassment for the exponents of mainstream so-called neoclassical economics. Indeed, this is one of the more exciting prospects raised by peaking world oil and gas production: to tear down the temple that Marshall, Keynes, Friedman and others have built and replace it with an approach to understanding political economy that is intellectually honest, consistent with the basic physical principles of the universe we live in, pragmatic, and accessible to all.

This may be hoping for too much, but The Last Oil Shock is a good start.

His full review including graphs is here. (About Chris Sanders)

From my reading so far the real challenge of peak oil is that our present society seems to be incredibly short sighted about any kind of economic indicators. I just read this week that purchases of cars with larger than 3l motors has increased – partially due to the strength of the NZ$ against the US and a completely misguided view of the stability of oil prices.

The global level of fuel prices also has a major impact on demand perceptions around the world. For example in the UK prices of around $US7 per gallon compare to $US3 per gallon in many parts of the U.S and $US4.70 in NZ with prices in Japan also being quite high. (Note to do these calculations convert to US gallon which is smaller than UK gallon and convert to U.S $ to get a comparison.)

Note (1) Dr David Haywood notes regarding the Ayres Paper almost as a comment in passing. The significance of the Ayres research deserves a special post of its own.

“one of the best research papers I’ve read in years. Ayres and Warr (writing in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics) explain the Solow residual using the Laws of Thermodynamics. Totally amazing stuff that should be compulsory reading for anyone interested in economics.”

The Robert Ayres paper receives a very readable analysis by Strahan in Chapter 5 of the book where I would agree with him when he commented on the Solow Residual model from 1956 “a model that failed to explain over three quarters of what it sought to explain should be junked or thoroughly reworked.”

The significance of the Ayres theory is that efficiency gains in the use of energy can actually drive economic growth and this is the most exciting economics I’ve seen almost since ever. It is sometimes known as the economic theory of growth. I want to know why did it took 30 years to get a sensible result without a nonsensical residual?

For more on the Professor Robert Ayres theory – watch David Haywood’s column at Southerly and the science section at Public Address including such deliciously useful topics as

• Can Thorium Reactors Solve the World’s Energy Problems? and
• What on earth is a Grätzel solar cell, and why is it so important?

For clues on what happens next see the Oil Depletion Protocol. This is Part 1 of a 4 part series. See these related posts in the series.

• (2) Why Alternative Energy Can’t Save Us from Peak Oil
• (3) How to Survive Peak Oil by Acting Locally – 7 ways
• (4) Some Conclusions on Peak Oil – Urgency Needed

See also

• NZ Energy Strategy
• and NZ Energy Strategy- Transport Summary

To buy in NZ The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man at Fishpond

“last oil shock”, “David Strahan”, “peak oil theory”, “hubbert peak”