thinking: relating- celebrating :-)

Back in early 2007 a book called 8 Tribes was published. It was described then by the publishers as a

“snapshot of contemporary New Zealand (that) explores our unspoken class system and the hidden social boundaries that separate us from each other”

In January 2007 I wrote about this concept of social and cultural archetypes in a post called Tribal Demographics which might be helpful background.

With an election due on November 8th for New Zealand – my best guess is that the extended metaphors around the 8 Tribes idea will give a better indication of voting preferences and eventual outcomes than most of the poll indications to date.

And over here for more polls. Or for a graph go here. Why 123 seats? – overhang potential.

BTW readers from anywhere would find local equivalents of these tribes. The labels would be different but much broader than the -too generic to be useful- urban city vs rural country dichotomies that might have worked 50 years ago.

Note: to US based readers – Flight of the Conchords are (almost certainly) members of the Cuba St tribe

As I recall part of the difficulty in the last election was that the National Party leader at the time Don Brash acted and spoke as if he was always talking to the North Shore and Remuera tribes.

Unfortunately for him the election was won not by a single political party but by a coalition of those mostly affiliated to the Grey Lynn tribe.

Consequently I would expect conversations among members of the Grey Lynn tribe to offer some interesting insights into voting intentions.

• The questions are – What Can We Learn from 8Tribes thinking for the Election?

And -

• Have our politicians learned anything about communicating with the 8 or 9 different tribal groups described in the book?

As a member of the Grey Lynn tribe myself I do think that Labour is missing an opportunity to speak fluently to each tribe and losing votes to the Greens and the Maori Party as a result.

In fact the PM – Helen Clark is apparently trying to convince us that tactical voting for the Greens is a bad idea. I note that those directions came from a meeting mostly attended by members of the Papatoetoe tribe who might take such guidance on-board.

I’d guess that members of the Grey Lynn tribe will still vote Green and probably in greater numbers which is an example of how the same message can have two very different results. Even worse it is seen as patently self serving and wrong by many who would usually vote Labour.

Language is full of dialects and meaningful quirks. “Divided by a common language” was a description I believe George Bernard Shaw used to describe UK and US cultures at one very obvious level.

On a macro level we often see the use of coded words and expressions which are meant to cross reference and signal particular meanings best understood by the party faithful and often described as dog-whistle politics.

However such “whistling” is often described as being a negative thing whereas a wider understanding of 8 Tribes social meaning and context would be a more positive approach, in my view.

Perhaps some kind of misguided dog whistling is why 3 very senior National party candidates have made such obvious political blunders; Lockwood Smith and Maurice Williamson in particular.

On the other hand – despite Smith and Williamson both having been Cabinet Ministers they do tend to come across as prize dicks /dorks on occasion.

I would note that politicians have long been experts at working and reading crowds and I’d say their comments were meant for those crowds but not for the wider media.

When their partly intuitive and highly tuned crowd decoders kick in they can often be brilliant in that exact context; but the when the sound bites get broadcast we are often left scratching our heads to explain why they spoke in a particular way.

I therefore find it hard to believe Smith (MP for 24! years) and Williamson (MP for 21 years!) are idiots and make silly mistakes on the election trail. However, others are not so sure.

If John Key is hoping to become leader he needs to actively demote both of them for their foolish comments – unless of course they are just saying in public what the National Party believes in private.

Besides the 8 Tribes idea there is a wealth of research on cultural imprinting that all politicians (and marketers) should be aware of. For example – Rapaille’s cultural anthropology work deserves much more of a review than I have time for below.

Dr. Clotaire Rapaille wrote* in his ChangeThis Manifesto Know the Codes in July 2006 (17 pages Creative Commons – free to download) about how to discover and understand similar social territory. (And in published book The Culture Code )

“The Culture Code is the unconscious meaning we apply to any given thing—a car, a type of food, a relationship, even a country—via the culture in which we are raised.”

* A fascinating aside on Rapailles Influences from the well known – De Tocqueville, Freud and Jung to the lesser known Bettelheim, Laborit, Lorenz and Ruth Benedict.

Read more about Rapailles Influences here.

In July ’07 there was a feature article on the 8 Tribes by Gena Tuffery over at Idealog magazine called Tribal Counsel. As Gena noted then:-

“Reaction to this new form of social shorthand was strong and varied—which perhaps proves the book’s argument. Although the eight suburbs used to identify the tribes aren’t indicative of literal location, some Kiwis I canvassed feel penned in by the geographical descriptors.

They protest that to be labelled a representative of the ‘achieving’ North Shore, ‘intellectual’ Grey Lynn, ‘staunch’ Balclutha, ‘entitled’ Remuera, ‘free-spirited’ Raglan, ‘unpretentious’ Papatoetoe or ‘community-minded’ Otara is no more character-revealing than, say, being dubbed Dopey or Sneezy.”

Gena spoke with Chris Brown of Sputnik and Jill Caldwell of  Windshift who co-authored that book. Caldwell* is still using the insights and approach gained from the 8 Tribes research to look at trends and group behavious such as July 08 Newsletter : The Tribes as Consumers Jill writes (newsletter)

“At higher income levels, we found an urban intellectual Grey Lynn tribe who, though having no strong economic need to do so, have embraced a plain vanilla Papatoetoe / Balclutha frugality as a kind of moral imperative – though with a dispensation for overseas travel to places of culture.

The cut-backs the Grey Lynn tribe make are designed to save money AND resources – saving power at home for example, reading the labels, watching the consumer shows on TV for tips, taking the bus to work.

There’s concern for how other people are coping and the ever-present Grey Lynn guilt at their own relative fortune.”

Ongoing research project for 8 Tribes

Back when I first looked at the 8 Tribes concept  there was quite an (offline) side debate about how this didn’t really reference the Polynesian dimension in New Zealand on a more tacit basis. The idea that race, culture and language are independent has been well accepted for many years now. (Franz Boas)

The cultural bias of the observers needs to be taken into account and the sketch of the Otara tribe doesn’t really capture what I believe is happening within NZ culture.

I’m not sure that the 8 Tribes book successfully addressed the dimensions of race very well but I’ll raise that for your comments and inputs. (Go here for comments including 2 from the original authors.)

What makes the upcoming election very significant is a new found sense of wider Nationhood including acknowledgment of Tikanga Maori in the wider population. We have seen nothing less than a Maori led cultural renaissance only hinted at by reflecting on how the tribal archetypes might combine.

For example the confluence of Cuba St and Grey Lynn has created a wider market for cultural production and appreciation. This was noted in a chapter on trends at the end of the book but perhaps it has accelerated since then.

The rise of the Maori Party and a wealth of articulate urban Maori / Polynesian leaders across a wide spectrum means that the Labour Party will just have to hope they can negotiate successfully with the Maori Party.  I’m thinking more Tiki Taane or Selina Tusitala Marsh* than John Tamihere here.

Although the Maori Party should dump the nut jobs like Turia who is clearly sucking up to the National Party.

No one really wants a rerun of Winston Peters cynical behaviour in pointless coalitions. He should get zero votes but inexplicably some people still like him. The Maori Party should have learned from that.

* David Eggleton wrote “Poems, as the zen koan has it, can communicate before they are understood.” (Unlike most politicians?)

It’s a stretch but perhaps the 8 Tribes analogy is best understood as a diffuse form of poetry in motion?

I have just been referred to a very funny poem by Selina Tusitala Marsh that communicates more succinctly to the electorate than anything coming out of the major parties. (Will see if we can get a copy and/or link.)

Update: Here is that poem by  Dr Selina Tusitala Marsh, as a response to the comments made my Lockwood Smith last week. It was posted on the AEN (Aotearoa Ethnic Network) Special thanks to a clued up reader.

‘Mr Locksmith loses the key on the eve of the big party’

Herow!
My name Fong or Wong…you chuse
my Engrand not bery  gud
but my hands dey quick
dey smal an fast
can sew your suit
can pick your fruit
can do many quick, fast fing
oh!  I gotta go
I gotta show my kiwi-mate
how to use da toilet
he from Samoa
he only got da flushing one

Mr Locksmith, he show me
how to dig da big hole
out back by da peach tree
we go see him now
he show us how to
squat and drop

Selina Tusitala Marsh

The emergence of the Ponsonby -proto tribe was noted as a trend that I would say has accelerated and it should not be ignored by the politicians. It should be no surprise that the Green Party has growing support among all tribes but especially Grey Lynn.

The political parties that communicate better with these 8 or 9 tribes will be the ones that do best in the upcoming election. Voters are much smarter than the sound bite signals we mostly hear.

Perhaps the best thing about the 8 Tribes concept is that it gives us a vocabulary  for discussing these ideas and articulating new ones. It also helps us uncover our deeper intentions and motivations and to decode our own cultural patterns and conditioning.

Thanks to Chris Brown and Jill Caldwell for the book which you can still buy. I should also make it clear that the analysis and opinions here are mine. Feel free to comment.

FYI – I did the 8 Tribes Diagnostic test in Jan 07 with the following results. Mostly Grey Lynn with Cuba St almost as high.

If you enjoyed reading this you may also like these earlier posts..

• Real change means more than a Heisenberg T-Shirt | 06
  
• Tribal Demographics | 07

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Over the weekend there were a growing number of policy debates around the impacts and implications of proposed changes to government investment strategy.

At Public Address Russell Brown writes

“Labour’s guarantee scheme was excoriated along with National’s risky new plan for the Super Fund in a not-online NBR lead story on Friday, under Rob Hosking’s byline. Unfortunately, the latter can’t be so easily fixed.

The story pointed out that by 2025 the 40% of the fund that National wants to force into local investment will by be $43.6 billion: bigger than the entire market cap of the NZX-50 plus the expected value of Fonterra were it to be floated and quotes a string of specialists pouring scorn on the policy. Ben Thomas thrashes the policy in his column, which concludes with an unnamed economist declaring “this is becoming a scary election.”

Ben proposes that Labour should respond by running ads featuring Dancing Cossacks. That would be kind of meta, wouldn’t it?”

In my view assaulting the policy misses the more significant point- which is that debating these ideas is the really important thing.

The actual mechanics of implementation and the policy issues are important but so is the wider context.

The relative size of the current equity markets and the impact that more local investment might have is also not rocket science. It seems plain silly to argue that if more investment funding was available locally that the equity markets would stay the same because they would also grow considerably as well.

There are of course alternative investments a fund can make. In Australia the Future Fund kept a very high percentage of cash in the local banking system. I’m not sure how 45% can be described as more than half so that part must be a typo.

(That must also indirectly have benefited NZ where 4 of the 5 big banks are Australian owned.)

“While the Future Fund, a government vehicle established to pay public servant retirement liabilities, has only invested 10 per cent in Australian shares, about 55 per cent of all superannuation funds are in the sharemarket, according to Rainmaker Information.

More than half of the Future Fund’s $63 billion is sitting in cash with Australia’s banks, and domestic subsidiaries of foreign banks. The Commonwealth Bank holds the most, with $7.8 billion, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, and ANZ.

The fund gave them a welcome and relatively cheap source of money as the cost of borrowing overseas has soared.”

Here is a much broader assessment of the current political and economic context in NZ – from Vincent Heeringa

“Picture this: an election is upon us. We’ve just completed two quarters of negative growth, the government is a patchwork of parties built upon a bizarre deal with Winston Peters, the Prime Minister finds herself less popular than her opponent, and it feels like the whole country has run dry on ideas, and out of patience. Oh, and we’ve just bombed out of the World Cup at the hands of the French.”

The twist here is that described 1999. If we are revisiting the past what else has happened in the meantime.

Read the full feature over here. The list is not comfortable reading but we do need to think about scoring the present government on their progress or lack of it and what that might mean going forward.

On a more positive note:

“The New Zealand Institute, in some excellent research on savings, listed the benefits of increased household savings: a larger pool of domestic capital will help companies grow, lift productivity and reduce the cost of capital; moderate exchange rate fluctuations; create a more supportive home base; and help New Zealand retain ownership of its companies.

If KiwiSaver can make inroads into this extensive list—and I think it will—the scheme could be the single most positive policy Labour introduced in the past nine years.”

There is a treasury estimate of Government spending For the year ending July showing a range from 36-41% of GDP.

Depending upon one’s personal viewpoint you might say those levels are too high but in view of an uncertain outlook for the global economy it could also be argued that the government should use its spending power in a smart way.

Regardless of the ideologies being wheeled out, it is still of value to see some of the policy ideas being debated more fully.

And those thinking that PPP are the way to go might want to view this assessment by RiskMetrics on the Australian experience in that area.  Beware of overly complex fee models and double dipping.

Thanks to Paul Williams for spotting the article.

Two years and 5 days ago I started this blog to be able to store up a bit of a reference library of ideas and experiences for customers, friends and myself.

It has snowballed to be much more than that. Thanks to the readers in the US, Australia, NZ and UK especially but every week brings new surprises.  Great ideas are being recognised and debated in this and many other blogs around the world. Thanks for stopping by today.

Currently in talks with others on how to deepen the political and economic debate for improved outcomes for NZ and the global economy.  Stay tuned for ideas on how this might be focussed and shaped.

The first post was welcome to a BlogVenture where I included a quote by Charles Kettering

“The only difference between a problem and a solution is that people understand the solution.”- by Charles Kettering.

87 posts (90+ comments Thanks Mark, David and everyone who coments) and roughly 100,000 words later I think I’m getting the hang of the questions.

I also work on about 50 other websites and so this blog gets a bit low on airtime from me while I juggle other blogs and client projects.

On the whole though – the plan has been to post a more thoughtful piece at least once a month and preferably once a week and so 87 posts in 102 weeks is about 80%+ of the time that has worked.

I need to update my list of top 10 posts – but it has been very gratifying to get feedback – much of it not published from hundreds of correspondent and thousands of readers worldwide.

I was really challenged by Seth Godin a few months back who wrote something to the effect that bad times still create opportunities for us to articulate a differnt future. We don’t need to be frozen in the headlights.

Marketers spend a lot of time describing a future and making it real.

I am an optimist and I know that there are some smart thinkers out there. Blogging offers a way to get past the shallowness of public debate on some of these areas.

As a reader you can help me and other bloggers by challenging us with questions and feedback.

If you are a blogger you can also do the same and write your contributions on your sites and other public spaces such as the NZX one.

As voters and members of the community we deserve a better, smarter outcomes for our children and our families. A dash of humour doesn’t hurt either.

As it happens I’m going to meet some other bloggers today in person for the first time. Expecting it to be fun and looking forward to some sharp moments. (Step away from the keyboard… your lunch has arrived etc.)

You may have seen this already from Jack Black. Light hearted but captures the long term perspectives very well.

Or if you prefer to explore paradigms and game changing rather than just shuffling the deckchairs- Here is a quote from John R. Ehrenfeld writing in ChangeThis – 2503beyondsustain Creative Commons – (so download and recycle)

The Problem with Our Solutions
“As a society, we are addicted to solving our problems through a reductionist frame. When
we confront problems in the world, we chop them into small pieces and give each piece to a
specialist familiar with that chunk.

Over time, as we have done this more and more, society’s competence to address the complex, messy problems we confront has diminished. Unsustainability is just such a messy problem.

Sustainability is a holistic concept that takes an equally holistic stance to attain. Reductionist solutions will not suffice.”

The full manifesto is available from ChangeThis

Following on from yesterday it seems that some of the ideas in the draft strategy for coming out of the crisis stronger -Download Full Document here have got a bit more traction with National.

*Later in the day – John Key announced that he would be looking for the NZ Super Fund to invest 40% of its total in NZ rather than the 23% it does currently.  As John Armstrong notes -(16th Oct NZHerald)

“Cue the balalaika music. Cue the dancing cossacks. Let’s electioneer like it’s 1975 in reverse.”

such a move in the recent past for the National Party would have been seen as pure communism.

1975 was the first election I remember taking an interest in. I was still at school and not able to vote and the whole election campaign with a Prime Minister called Piggy Muldoon was straight out of George Orwell’s Animal Farm. Completely bizarre. Hopefully 33 years later the voting public is a bit smarter than in 1975.

The policy of re-weighting Super Investment from 23% to 40% within NZ is in fact one of the ideas in the draft paper referred to above from the NZX / NZ Institute release.

The real difficulty here is that such a policy change fits more naturally with Labour than the National Party and there is no reason why they couldn’t adopt the same view and neutralise any gains from the policy.

I would have said in an election you want to differentiate your policies and people not just adopt the other teams policies and pretend this is your idea. I may have missed it – but it would also be polite for My Key to give a hat tip to David Skillings and Mark Weldon. (Correction: the hat tip has been made.)

On Page 14 “Re-directing taxpayer funded savings institutions”

“The government owns financial institutions that control in excess of $30 billion of financial assets (NZ Super Fund, EQC, ACC etc). These assets exist to fund specific liabilities, and are managed according to orthodox investment and portfolio allocation criteria.

However, the current crisis creates a case for examining whether these assets are being invested in a way that maximises the national interest.

Given that New Zealand firms will find it more difficult to access credit for investment, directing these financial institutions to place a specified proportion in New Zealand investments seems appropriate.” (my italics)

Along with the earlier recommendations on adopting a KiwiCo investment vehicle such as Temasek in Singapore and Khazanah in Malaysia a re-weighting of Government sector institutions towards NZ companies would seem to be at least partly the inspiration for Mr Keys’s policy announcement.

What do you think?

My view is that Labour and Mr Cullen in particular should say this is a good idea and that Labour would definitely look at the re-weighting of local investment from 23% to 40% and is they want to go one better they could expand the scope from Kiwisaver to include the EQC & ACC and noted above.

“Finance Minister Michael Cullen this week hinted he, too, was interested in getting the fund to invest more in New Zealand.

But yesterday, he said there was no way Labour would change the law so a minister could tell the fund what to do.” from Super Plan: meddling or a Good Idea

There are always ways to influence investment policies and I would have said risk management needs and urgent review given the global meltdown on equity markets.  The second part of this is that redirecting EQC and ACC may be part of the answer as well.

My concern is that most larger NZ businesses are owned offshore anyway. It must be a concern and part of the macro-direction for NZX to encourage more local listings.

The other hidden factor in this equation is that the NZ Equity market is very thin and misses a fair number of substantial $100m+ businesses that are either family owned or owned by unlisted funds; and almost completely invisible to the investing public / NZX.

Note: Update On 22 Oct Lance Wiggs did this analysis which puts a different spin on many of the suggestions.