thinking: relating- celebrating :-)

Marshall McLuhan once said that “The old medium is always the content of the new medium.”

He was talking about the way that movies were being morphed into TV but that idea is more than relevant now with all kinds of media being filtered through millions of eyeballs online.

It is tempting to think we will know what the results will be when we mash up content across the media universe but the truth is far more interesting than the fiction.

There is an ongoing need for individuals and businesses to reinvent the way they talk to and otherwise engage with customers- in McLuhan’s description – for the customers to fulfill a extended role in the process and feel themselves to be part of the media / inside the moment.

Peter Hirshberg is one of those  who understood early on some of the implications and the huge social changes coming. He also missed a lot at the time (like most of us) but was able to link a number of the crossover points between TV and the web into a coherent and entertaining story about cultural disruptions and technology.

The video contains a fair amount of archival footage including some classic McLuhan moments.

Peter Hirshberg on TV and the web -31:41 Posted: Sept 2008 on TED

On Peter’s blog he links to a Sept 2007 paper over at HBS If you are an online marketer go read it now.

For digital marketing practice and theory, the last decade has brought two related surprises: the rise of social media and the rise of search media. Marketing has struggled to find its place on these new communication pathways. Old paradigms have been slow to die.

This paper reviews early beliefs about interactive marketing, then identifies 5 discrete roles for interactive technology in contemporary life and 5 ways that firms respond.

It concludes that the new media are rewarding more participatory, more sincere, and less directive marketing styles than the old broadcast media rewarded.

Key concepts include:

• Successful interactive marketing may be less a matter of domination and control, and more a matter of fitting in.
• There is a human need to assert and present to the world a self-serving identity and to manage one’s personal reputation.

The form of interactivity most attractive to marketing is one that facilitates people’s ability to construct their identity and contribute to the making of meaning.

That was the exec summary – I also liked this quote buried in the abstract.

“It concludes that while meaning-making remains the central purpose of marketing communication, the shift from broadcasting to interaction within digital communities is moving the locus of control over meanings from marketer to consumer and rewarding more participatory, more sincere, and less directive marketing styles.”

So there you have it – Engagement and roleplay by the consumer.

This goes all the way back to Shakespeare putting those extra scenes into his plays for the groundlings to watch.

Modern marketing turns out to be live theatre at its best playing 24/7 on all of your networked devices and no auditions!  Wait… I feel a Shakespeare quote coming on. What do you think?

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One of my late grandmothers lived through the 1929 Depression in New Zealand and that stayed with her all her life.  She lived for 90+ years but the memories of those times were never far away and it always seemed like a pivotal moment which shaped a generation (or two.)

She used to remind us of this fairly often even though there were many other events we might have wanted to hear about  – 1929 was the biggie of them all.

Since then the world has had a series of smaller economic shocks like the 1973 Oil crisis, Black Friday in Oct 1987 and many other meltdown periods in between like 9/11/01

A few weeks back David Slack asked the question The lesson of the Great Depression is? The discussion seemed to get side-tracked but it is a useful question to ask.

Every time I look at the writing on 1929 there seems to be about 4 theories on what the lessons were depending on your taste in economics.

The causes of the Great Depression are still a matter of active debate among economists. For some ideas on the causes of the Great Depression here is a summary.

I like the debt deflation theory the best. perhaps one lesson is – there is no such thing as a free lunch / debt sucks.

It is also clear that governments of today are intervening much more actively to help manage the downside risks which hopefully showed we’ve learned something about macro economic management.

Lets hope so anyway. There was at one particularly helpful comment over there by WH

“There was a great chart at the Standard that is really worth checking out, if you haven’t already seen it: http://www.thestandard.org.nz/how-to-stimulate-the-economy/
I’ve been really impressed by Steve Pierson’s writing, fwiw.

It can be difficult to explain that the government spending multiplier can have a greater expansionary effect than tax cuts.”

I’d be interested in what you all think about tax cuts and other government interventions.

For an Australian view here is a snip I found yesterday from EFIC.

EFIC is Australia’s export credit agency, and provides specialist finance and insurance services to Australian companies exporting and investing overseas. In other words they are risk managers at the global end of world trade and their assessment is one that I like.

Back to the 1930s? Unlikely says EFIC’s Chief Economist, Roger Donnelly

There has been much talk recently that the world economy is ‘going back to the 1930s’. “How close are we to a 1929-like Financial Crash and 1930s-style Great Depression?” ask Donnelly. “Two points are worth noting.”

“It is difficult to exaggerate the severity of the recent panic and recent events certainly seem to have been on a scale resembling the 1930s.”

“But in the 1930s, central banks stood idly by as depositors rushed to withdraw their money and banks called in loans. The central banks mistakenly thought that this was a healthy ‘purge’ after the ‘binge’ of the Roaring Twenties.”

In fact, what happened was the stock of money and credit collapsed, and deflation set in, forcing highly geared borrowers to default in repeated waves (a virulent process economists call ‘debt deflation’).

Central banks and treasuries have learnt that to head off such a disaster they mustn’t be complacent. So this time, they are taking decisive steps to ensure money, credit – and aggregate demand – don’t collapse.

However, Donnelly warns: “There remains a risk that the panic doesn’t subside and central banks and treasuries finally ‘use up all of their ammunition’ – interest rate cuts, borrowing capacity etc – to fight it. In which case, the world economy could succumb to a Great Depression. But that still seems to be a small risk.”

“The bigger risk is that the world economy will now perform only sluggishly for a protracted period, as bank and non-bank firms alike continue to de-gear and recapitalise.”

“A synchronised G3 recession is in prospect, though growth could still hold up quite well in Asia and the Gulf. In these more difficult conditions, fragile and vulnerable entities, be they countries, governments, banks or companies, could collapse, though they may be rescued by the state if deemed Too Big or Too Important to fail.”

Here are some questions to think about

• What are your thoughts on recession / depression lessons?
• Have we learned from previous economic shocks before?
• Does history matter?
• Maybe even where do economists and idealogy get too tangled to be useful?

And if you would like to be part of the future answers for NZ have another look at the latest update on NZX by the Morrison & Co teams.

For another set of views see NEF Their tagline is “We believe in economics as if people and the planet mattered.” They mention

“the Green New Deal Group. It is a response to the credit crunch and wider energy, climate and food crises, and to the lack of comprehensive, joined-up action from politicians.”

I think it is important that we debate these ideas and encourage our governments to help fix structural disconnections.  I am concerned that the various debates will get polarised by right or left ideologies and miss being useful because of that.

Hopefully we can take into account some of the wider issues and make longer term decisions. Over to you.

Ahh.. its that time of the year when everyone is hanging out for a Christmas break.

Summer in the Southern hemisphere is a grand time and even with the “not so positive” news about an extra ray of sunshine goes a long way.

After the elections in NZ it is time to get busy. Got plenty of deadlines on so thought I’d try a quick and simple poll to see what you all thought?

Feel free to write in your own answer or leave a comment as well.

This is a new service from PollDaddy. Each visitor gets only one vote.

We have used the flash version as it looks better.

You may need to visit the site to see the poll if using RSS.

These results may change slightly but here are the almost definitive results in percentage terms and equivalent seats. The official table for this is over here and the seats should stay the same but may be small changes in the total numbers over the next day or so.

Update: the seat numbers changed on 22nd of Nov with National down 1 to 48 and the Greens up 1 to get 9 seats.  The linked table is more up to date than the screenshot below. Will update that soon.

Another useful source to view is the 49th New Zealand Parliament on wikipedia which is being updated even as I write this.

The government looks like it will include National, Act and United Future at the very least (65 seats) with some potential to include a role for the Maori Party which has 5 seats of their own.

This is another historic moment as we have seen two giant political figures step out and one Halloween monster step back in.

Winston Peters NZ First didn’t make the 5% party threshold and he has conceded defeat and is out of Parliament after nearly 30 years.

Helen Clark after being PM for 9 years has announced she is stepping down from the Labour Party leadership after conceding defeat to John Key and the National Party. I hope Helen gets full credit for her work she has has been a great leader.

The Halloween monster is of course Roger Douglas of Act who gets a seat. All the cartoonists and satirists will be very pleased about that especially after his fire & brimstone speech earlier in the evening. It was like the time-warp from the Rocky Horror without the fun music. Rogernomics revisited is too hardline for most voters and is definitely not helpful for Key.

To be fair – Rogers demeanour may have had something to do with being asked for comments on Winston Peters stepping down by TV3. Peters entered Parliament in 1978 after defeating Roger’s brother Malcolm Douglas on a legal appeal /recount for the Hunua seat.

Consequently the smart move is to counterbalance Act (5 seats) with the Maori Party (5 seats) and continue to insist on a more centrist rather than right wing government.

John Key is sending all the right signals. It also appears that the convention in the National Party is for the leader to appoint Cabinet Ministers in a much more direct way.

If Key acts decisively to get rid of the dead wood in his front bench then he has a hope of repositioning the National Party as a more long term centre right option. To do this he needs to dump Lockwood Smith, Murray McCully, Nick Smith and Maurice Williamson at the very least.

The idealogues in Act – especially Douglas needs to be kept at bay as well. To help with this task there are a number of new National Party MP’s that have been elected. Tim Groser as Trade Minister will be a huge asset for example. Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga in Maungakiekie also looks to be an excellent new MP.

Auckland Central has changed from being safe Labour to being a National Party seat. The Green Party vote very well there (15.4% of party votes) but even so the sitting Labour MP (Tizard) seemed complacent and arrogant to many former supporters.

Tizard is number 38 on the Labour list probably because she was expected to win the electorate vote. I don’t know the exact calculations but it seems like she is gone if the list counts down after the electorate seats and only 22 from the list make it in.

I did hear some sugestion that failing to get Tizard in was a failure of tactical voting in Auckland Central because too many Greens (3,695) voted for the Green candidate who could never win. There were plenty of grumbles from existing Labour Party voters unhappy with Tizard and her personal vote was clearly down.

In Mt Albert the Green Party got 10.4% of the Party vote including mine.  Overall though the Greens got around 6.5% of the party vote. It is less surprising that the Green Party polls much higher in the city seats but most polling had them at 8-9% so this is down but they do get at least 2 more seats in parliament.

In my view the Greens benefited from the social desirability bias especially in the city seats. It is more acceptable to say you are intending to vote Green even if you don’t follow through on the day.

NZ First had the flip-side of this effect. It was very uncool to say you intended to vote NZ First and so the polls had them at 2% but on the day they got 4.2% which meant that they under polled.

It is possible if more people had realised that NZ First actual support was at 4.2% then some voters might have helped get them over the 5% threshold. In essence NZ voters have to consider whether their preferred party will get more than 5% otherwise those party votes are wasted.

The other factor for the Greens would have been the credit crisis and perhaps more short term thinking along the lines of how can we afford the ideals of climate change and the like. Despite the good showing by the Greeens we now have the Act Party with increased influence and they are extremely cautious on climate change to say the least.

Perhaps the best result from this election is the elimination of uncertainty in the political system.

We have a result that is as definitive as it can be under MMP. Given the uncertain economic climate it is going to be tough making unpopular decisions in government but Key is making all the right noises.

As an ex money market trader this might even prove to be a bonus on the banking side of things.

If they can also get some support from the Maori Party then perhaps they will have a buffer for the road ahead and be able to keep some of the dead wood away from the rudder.