At TEDxSydney back in May of this year one of the quiet understated surprises was this geopolitical assessment of the changes to China, Australia and US foreign policy and economics and the background thinking that can help us make more sense of what this means in Australia (and New Zealand.)
In New Zealand the best businesses are “born global”. It is the same for Australia. But at the government foreign policy level it can be more difficult to really understand what those policy changes mean to businesses “on the ground”.
Have a look at this tipping point graph from about the 9min mark during the talk. Thirty years of 10% p.a growth is vey much a development miracle. Chinese growth will slow down and become old before it is rich.
We can learn much from this story and the connections and consequences for our own economies.
Geoffrey’s presentation at TEDxSydney would have been one of the best for any business people in that audience.
Chinese Foreign Minister to counterpart Bob Carr:
“the time for cold war alliances has long since passed.”
The sooner we can understand and decode the political signals comeing from China the better our businesses will be. If we are not doing business in China already we should be asking ourselves why not.
Sometime very soon China will displace the U.S as the largest economy in the world. This video talk by Garrett offers some significant insights for all global businesses and especially those of us in New Zealand and Australia.
One of The Australian’s “50 Most Influential People in Education 2012″, Geoffrey Garrett has held academic appointments at Oxford, Stanford, Yale and the Wharton School. He is a fellow of the Australian Academy of the Social Sciences, a trustee of the Asia Foundation and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In April 2012 he became Dean of the University of Sydney Business School. A frequent commentator on global business, economics and politics, his academic publications include Partisan Politics in the Global Economy and The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy. He has led senior executive programs on the global economy for Columbia, Stanford, UCLA and Wharton and collaborations with Chevron, Dow Chemical, GE, News Corporation and other companies in Australia. He holds a BA (Hons) from the ANU and an MA and PhD from Duke University where he was a Fulbright Scholar.
The U.S is the worlds innovation engine / immigration magnet. Of all the people in the world who have migrated to a new country – 20% of those have moved to the U.S.
US growth rates only ever got to 3ish per cent but it is the innovation makes a world of difference. So even with the big changes in China the US still has a role to play and that is a huge opportunity for all of us.
We also need to think about China as a market for our products and services.
For example one of the projects I work with was asked about broadcast rights for some content. The client has TV stations in literally hundreds of Chinese cities. Even with language and other cultural barriers a very small percentage of a very large market equals a whole new paradigm for ANZ businesses.