One of the developing trends I have been noticing is the big rise in uber-connected people leveraging their social and business networks for a common cause. I support this but wonder if some of the media ripples from the all of this activity are being somewhat discounted?

This used to be called cause-based marketing but the “m” word has slipped into the background a bit as many now just assume that Facebook, Twitter, Ning and all the other social media tools are part of the scenery.

In the early days on LinkedIn there was a kind of magic number for most people around 250 connections beyond which the social coherence became a bit misty. What I mean, is that the noise to signal ratio gets way out of kilter and a natural re-balancing starts to occur.

An endless stream of consciousness type “pulse” stream as it is called on Plaxo can be very annoying. Something I was reminded of when I connected my Twitter account to a Pulse stream for testing purposes and forgot about it resulting in far too much noise for sensible enjoyment.

Twitter is just the latest example of the arms style race for big numbers.

It used to be MySpace or StumbleUpon that had the big numbers and soaring traffic flows now its Twitter, FriendFeed and Ping.fm. There is something slightly disconcerting about all of this though. A kind of constant reinvention of channels where people shout at each other when that kind of thing only gets so far.

I heard the LongNow foundation described as kind of Slow food for Thinkers in a post called Slow Thinking and Fast Tweeting. I think (no pun intended) it  should have said Fast Thinking and Slow Tweeting

I can just hear one of my first employers favourite refrain at this point saying “What’s the action Point here. ” Words into deeds and all that.

Then later on – learning that action is no substitute for direction and vision and how to make sense of all the activity that passes for action. They are not the same things.

Vanitis vanatatum or Vanitas vanitatum omnia vanitas is putting is a bit too strongly but using a network to amplify communications does not amplify the sincerity or purpose of what we are about. 

The Long Now Foundation, which fosters long-term thinking and responsibility in the framework of the next 10,000 years. The Long Now is like the slow food movement for thinkers. It’s about thinking about the long term, and it’s also about slower, better thinking. Obviously they intend to be around for a long time.

They’ve got a bunch of interesting projects and wide-ranging seminars, including the option to place bets and vote on predictions about the future. At the moment, it’s Kevin Kelly’s prediction that “By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”

CEO Evan Williams of Twitter made these comment in response to a thoughtful post over at RRW. Titled:How Twitter’s Staff Uses Twitter (And Why It Could Cause Problems) This is under the section subtitled “What Does Twitter HQ Have to Say About This?”

“As you know, there are lots of different ways to use Twitter. Many people fall into the trap that you should follow all or most people back out of a sense of politeness or so-called engagement with the community.

But the fact is, having more followers does not give you more time in the day* (as much as I’d like to sell that). At a certain point, you’re not actually reading any more tweets by following more people — you’re just dipping into the stream somewhat randomly and missing a whole lot of what people say.

That’s fine, but I believe people will generally get more value out of Twitter by dropping the symmetrical relationship expectation and simply curating their following list based on the information and people they want to tune in to.

I follow almost 1,000 accounts.”

* my emphasis

Social data dipping, conversation mining  or random data mining may be useful for trend spotting and I’ve been using Nambu‘s tag fields to see what appears in the tag cloud styled rear window view.

And there is no doubt that exponential number stacking is far to watch but how does it really help with leveraging communities for social purposes besides gossip and chit-chat.

One idea I rather like is The NZ Centre for Social innovation uses WordPress (and Ning) to “bring together public, private and community partners to create new solutions to New Zealand’s most pressing social needs.”

The NZ Centre for Social Innovation programme also uses a Camp concept to leverage web technology over an extended period for social good projects.

“We’re bringing together a mix of social entrepreneurs, web developers, business specialists and creatives to propose and vote on our top 3 ideas to innovate out of recession.

Later in the year we’ll hold a full weekend SI Camp to develop the top ideas into working web prototypes, with prizes including cash, mentoring and web development assistance.”

Way back in the early days of MIS (what we called IT back in early ’80′s) there was a progression idea for leveraging systems through 3 stages.

• Stage 1 was Simple transaction processing. The part where people scramble to get technology that works.
• Stage 2 – Reporting and Analysis which leads to process mapping and re-engineering
• Stage 3 – Competitive Advantage. Better practices over time as the insights are leveraged into better outputs.

I’m probably mis- remembering this esp. stage 2 (hat tip to Grant Furley.)  I’m sure there are other cycle or learning curve metaphors that could also describe this journey.

The point is in the early days its all about getting the basics right. Then absorbing the learning and adapting overall to new paradigms or Not (in some cases.)

Humans love patterns and we should relish the opportunity to drink from the firehouse of the internet but there is no substitute for actually getting together in person to solve problems over a cup of tea or other beverages.

I applaud the work of the Centre for Social Innovation in starting to move to the third circle / 3rd stage by extending the social networking tools to incubate and develop useful outputs for communities.

I also declare an interest here in helping to seed and develop dozens of blogs and online networks mostly by assisting with my WordPress expertise including WordCampNZ in Wellington on August 8th and 9th.

Very much looking forward to meeting some of the online collaborators who are indeed leveraging communities for good.

A key benefit of the book, The Last Oil Shock book by David Strahan, is found in the last two chapters in which he recommends a series of local and personal actions for urgent changes needed to survive this major threat.

In a chapter called “Pass-notes for Policy Makers” the book makes a broad recommendation to prepare as much as possible for the coming crunch by changing our consumption behaviours and managing our exposure to the main risk factors.

He also notes (quoting Thierry Desmarest – CEO of Total in 2006) that voluntarily reducing consumption by half could delay the expected peak by up to 10 years; however- we all know that this is highly unlikely without a massive epiphany.

Global warming* and the need for carbon management has now widely entered the public consciousness – peak oil needs to do the same.

Here are 7 things that you can start doing now.

1. Educate yourself and your friends and vote accordingly. More articles here
2. Make your own action plans for your country (check the Oil depletion atlas and file – Forecasts here. For example Asia-Pacific region, New Zealand Oil peak forecast year 2008, Australia – peaked in 2000, Japan peaked in 1992, USA peaked in 1970 while Canada is predicted to peak in 2034. Example spreadsheet from Energyfiles for New Zealand – others available.
3. Reduce your own personal exposure to oil and energy shocks by reducing use of such resources. (Use more public transport, drive less, become a town planner and stop those idiot developers building carpark based shopping malls in the middle of nowhere – you get the idea.) More examples here try reducing by 3% each year.
4. Use renewable energy sources where you can.
5. Pressure politicians by finding out what their energy policies are and what they plan to do about the impacts of peak oil.
6. Support public transport changes such as changing from diesel powered trains to electric in Auckland for example.
7. Pressure for policy changes on roading and transport projects.

What we need to do now to to move from general actions towards specific actions in each country. As I live in New Zealand I am particularly interested in what can be done here at both the political level and the personal one.

What Is Your Local Energy Profile?

The New Zealand Energy Data File is available online website at MED.

• Total primary energy supply decreased from 747 PJ (petajoules) in 2005 to 741 PJ in 2006, a 0.8% decrease;
• Coal production increased 9.7%, from 139 PJ in 2005 to 153 PJ in 2006. Coal consumption for electricity generation decreased 4.8% to 52PJ from 2005 to 2006 and remained about the same for other sectors;
• Total electricity generation increased 0.9% to 42,056 GWh (gigawatt hours) in 2006. Renewable electricity generation accounted for 66% of total electricity generation;
• Natural gas production increased by 2.0% in 2006 to 163 PJ;
• Total national consumption of petrol and diesel remained relatively constant around 221 PJ. During this period:
  Premium petrol was 24 PJ, up 5.9%
  Regular petrol was 89 PJ, down 1.4%
  Diesel was 108 PJ, up 0.7%

What about New Zealand’s position on Peak Oil?

The following exchange of questions comes from a New Zealand parlimentary debate on 26th July 2007 between the Jeanette Fizsimons -Co-leader of the Greens and the Government Finance Minister. (Green links on Peak Oil here.)

“What economic and fiscal strategies is he developing to prepare New Zealand for the impact of an “extremely tight” oil market within 5 years where oil production may not be able to keep up with demand, as predicted by the International Energy Agency’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report earlier this month?”

Dr MICHAEL CULLEN (Minister of Finance) : “Low debt and projected surpluses give New Zealanders as much fiscal flexibility to respond to changing circumstances as almost any other developed country has. The development of an emissions trading system, and measures to support energy efficiency, to support biofuels, and to support passenger transport will help directly. Of course, as oil prices rise, individuals also react, by, in fact, adjusting to more efficient vehicles.”

Jeanette Fitzsimons: Will he discuss with his colleague the Minister of Energy the need to amend this statement in the draft New Zealand *Energy Strategy: “It is unclear whether conventional oil production will peak in the next decade, or a decade or two later.” so that it reflects a greater sense of urgency, given that the Government has always relied on the *International Energy Agency’s fool’s paradise view that we still have around three decades until peak oil, despite all the other views to the contrary?

Dr MICHAEL CULLEN: “I do not propose to do that at this stage, at all. I am old enough to remember the report from the **Club of Rome in, I think, 1975, stating that we would have run out of oil by this point. In fact, proven commercial oil reserves now are still larger than they were 20 years ago.”

Later in this exchange Cullen notes that

Petrol prices at the pump now are significantly lower in real terms than they were, for example, in the early 1980s. It is not as though we have not been through these kinds of variables before. It is important to remember that other countries are going through the same experience…..

Jeanette Fitzsimons: Can the Minister place on record, then, that he expects the current rise in oil prices to be a temporary phenomenon, just as the oil price rises in the 1970s were, and that it does not signal a long-term depletion of oil supply?

Hon Dr MICHAEL CULLEN: I thought it was very clear from what I said that that was not what I was saying, at all—in fact, rather the opposite. I said that I expect that there are long-term pricing signals here that will lead to significant change in behaviour and practices by individuals, by business, and by others.

Jeanette Fitzsimons: I seek leave to table an article quoting *Goldman Sachs Group headed: “$100 oil price may be months away says..”

Frankly – it doesn’t seem that reassuring to me. Latest prices for oil are here

A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas – Working Draft US

This is from the National Petroleum Council in the U.S and is a major report called “Facing the Hard Truths About Energy,” which involved 350 participants and was led by former Exxon Mobil chairman Lee Raymond. (Exec Summary pdf.) July 18, 2007.

These 5 key recommendations are also referred to as “5 core U.S Strategies” :

1. Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses.
2. Expand and diversify production from clean coal, nuclear, biomass, other renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas; moderate the decline of conventional domestic oil and gas production; and increase access for development of new resources.
3. Integrate energy policy into trade, economic, environmental, security, and foreign policies; strengthen global energy trade and investment; and broaden dialogue with both producing and consuming nations to improve global energy security.
4. Enhance science and engineering capabilities and create long-term opportunities for research and development in all phases of the energy supply and demand-system.
5. Develop the legal and regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In addition, as policymakers consider options to reduce CO2 emissions, provide an effective, global framework for carbon management, including establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for CO2 emissions

The Council identified these strategies by drawing upon more than 350 expert participants with wide-ranging backgrounds to provide analysis, information, and insight. Additionally, extensive outreach efforts involved more than 1,000 people actively involved in energy. Task Groups for this study reviewed a broad range of public and aggregated proprietary studies in order to understand and evaluate the many assumptions and forces behind recent global energy projections.

Given the massive scale of the global energy system and the long lead times necessary to make significant changes, concerted actions are needed now to promote U.S. competitiveness by balancing economic, security, and environmental goals. (Slide show version here.)

More International Research

Here are 80 global Energy Reports from UK based Energy Pointers including a A 218-page Australian Senate Standing Committee report examining Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels. There is plenty of reading so you can write your own action plans.

A solar policy success story in Germany

In a promising example of how to encourage alternative energy use Germany has managed to mobilise thousands of people to take part in generating electricity via solar in a massive public policy

“Even though millions of Germans flee their damp, dark homeland for holidays in the Mediterranean sun, 55 percent of the world’s photovoltaic (PV) power is generated on solar panels set up between the Baltic Sea and the Black Forest.

So far just 3 percent of Germany’s electricity comes from the sun, but the government wants to raise the share of renewables to 27 percent of all energy by 2020 from 13 percent.”

“There are now 250,000 jobs in Germany in the renewables energy sector. Asbeck expects the number of jobs in solar power alone to double to 90,000 over the next five years and hit 200,000 in 2020.”

They passed a law (EEG) which has helped change behaviour immensely. This is the most interesting part of the story. Perhaps we can learn from Germany on what the best mix of public policies and practical logistics is so that we change global energy behaviours. The incredible thing is that solar energy is not that suited to the German weather patterns and so other countries with more sunshine could do even better.

Also a 40MW solar plant is under construction right now and expected to be completed by 2009.

“Construction on a 40 megawatt (MW) solar generation power plant is under way at a former military base in the Saxon region of Germany. The total surface area of the planned photovoltaic (PV) installation? It’s comparable to about 200 soccer fields, said Matthias Willenbacher, cofounder and CEO of the juwi group.”

Germany takes second place only to Japan in the world in photovoltaic power generation.

Japan leads the world in solar innovation for example spherical-shaped solar cells which is well worth exploring in a later piece.

In Melbourne, Australia a company called Solar Systems has received government funding to proceed with construction of a 154-megawatt solar power station in Victoria. It will be the bigest if the world if completed. There are also major solar projects (150Mw) in Algeria that have been announced recently although the lead times are very long.

Useful links for Tracking Oil related Topics in New Zealand

• Oil Archive on Scoop
• Energy Policy Archive on Scoop
• ASPO Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in New Zealand.
• Futures Trust
• Crown Minerals Petroleum Outlook for New Zealand
• Draft New Zealand Energy Strategy final version to be presented in September

Small Oil Find in NZ

The new Tui oil field doesn’t figure in the Energyfiles data as it is new, offshore and although estimates are promising – relatively unproven. Production started on 30th of July 2008. It is expected to produce 50,000 barrels a day and 10m barrels in the first year. The exploration company last year capped a gas find in Canterbury as it wasn’t viable. Tui is part of a group of fields in the Taranaki basin that could be promising although other commentators are not so hopeful. The latest information on these finds is released to the ASX as noted here. Tui shipped its first 300,000 barrels to refineries in Australia just this week. The Great South Basin has a few people excited. ExxonMobil and OMV have committed up to $1.2b in exploration resources.

*Global warming now has major recognition now and there is even a book on the NZ effects called Hot Topic by Gareth Renowden. Using the latest evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report, Gareth Renowden puts climate change into its New Zealand context.

And here How vulnerable to oil shocks are we, really? from the Oil Drum

And an audio interview podcast between David Strahan and George Kenney at Electric Politics

And get informed read up on The Oil Depletion Protocol Project which is an initiative undertaken by Post Carbon Institute, in association with Richard Heinberg, to lay the groundwork for and facilitate the successful adoption and implementation of the Protocol.

This is Part 3 of a 4 part series. See these related posts in the series.

• (1) Green futures and the last oil shock
• (2) Why Alternative Energy Can’t Save Us from Peak Oil
• (3) How to Survive Peak Oil by Acting Locally – 7 ways (this one)
• (4) Some Conclusions on Peak Oil – Urgency Needed

See also

• NZ Energy Strategy
• and NZ Energy Strategy- Transport Summary

“last oil shock”, “David Strahan”, “peak oil theory”, “energy strategy”, “oil shock”

At school my daughter is a very excited member of the Enviro Explorers who aim to treasure the environment while many of us parents drive them to school in huge gas guzzling cars. How shortsighted is that?

Incredibly it seems that despite 30 years of rising environmental awareness we still haven’t been convinced to significantly change our energy consumption behaviours.

In a video presentation on sustainability Alex Steffen makes the good point that we are currently using up enough resources to use up 5 planets worth (or more) and that the way that those resources are being used is also very unfair and extremely difficult to change.

John Doerr thinks that going green may be our “biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century” and his VC firm has invested US$200m in green-tech to try and find out. Both of these presentations are available on video at Ted.com

Despite better resources and greater need than ever – invitations by Alex Steffen and John Doerr to explore the bright green future are being downplayed while we continue to trash the planet.

What could be more important than global warming? Answer: Peak Oil

I’ve been reading The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan and it is a tough read because all of the usual arguments for technical progress (saving the day) are easily demolished. See also this piece by David on what the Stern Report got wrong.

“The Stern review on the economics of climate change completely fails to acknowledge the imminent decline in global oil production”

Despite the theory of peak oil having been around since 1956 many of us are still in extreme denial about what happens when oil prices quadruple or more. The change impacts that come from this when barrel prices are $70 now, but could easily get to $200-300/ per barrel – is so totally shocking that it is hard to think about.

Hubbert’s original peak oil theory was repeated by him using different models in 1962 and 1967 but it was not until the oil shocks of 1973 that his and others analysts warnings were taken seriously at all.

Our lifestyles and civilisation as we understand it is so closely tied to oil. Consider that for every barrel of oil we produce – we now consume 3. Or that 95% of oil reserves have been identified and largely extracted.

In very simple terms we running out of oil FAST and none of the other energy sources that have been trialled can replace the very high energy density of oil. Strahan backs up his test with research with and comes across as a thoroughly moderate and reasonable commentator on the subject.

Peak oil theory does attract some extreme views, which is not surprising for something that represents the end of a long expansionary phase in human history. However while some of the highly probable scenarios are depressing there are positive signs.

The subtitle of the book is “A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man.” It is an essential read for policy makers anywhere and those who care about their friends and families would do well to consider the personal implications of the action plans at the end of the book.

3 Book Reviews – (to buy your copy)

Paul Chefurka recommends the book.

“A recent Peak Oil book by David Strahan called The Last Oil Shock (which I cannot recommend highly enough) contains a pointer to an analysis that supports the worriers and discredits the economists’ optimism.”

Chefurka elaborates on the theories of Kummel and Ayres(1) who found a much better way to understand and explain the true economics of energy which is one of the more interesting parts of the book in Chapter 5 – First Principles. Paul also has another essay on his site in which he adds some thoughts on how we can understand some of this better if we compare it to the 5 stages of grieving scale (Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance) by Elizabeth Kubler-Ross which is a fairly serious kind of response.

All things considered Paul is at the pessimistic end of the spectrum and appears also somewhat overwhelmed by many of the linked problems which he details on his site if you are brave.

Graham Strouts gives the book full marks and disagrees with the continued use of nuclear power as supported by Strahan as part of the pass-notes for policy makers section. He concludes with (full review at Zone 5)

“The Last Oil Shock is another powerful voice in the peak oil debate and sets a new standard in investigative journalism for the issue”

From my reading of the book – it seems that nuclear energy is not being favoured per sae. It is more an issue of having such a wide energy deficit that extending or prolonging existing nuclear facilities in the UK may help manage the transition demand peaks. But then again Nuclear is also running out of supplies as well.

Chris Sanders has plenty to say about the book and the subject.

The idea that modern civilization is unthinkable without petroleum only arises when one contemplates life with a lot less of the stuff, which no doubt explains the urgency behind attempts to discredit the notion that world oil production might actually be a finite input to the world economy..

One of the merits of this book is that it tackles head-on the obvious linkages between current events in the Middle East, repository of the last truly great reserves of oil in the world, and the fact that the West has gone to war by invading Iraq…

War for oil is one Inconvenient Truth that Al Gore will happily avoid.

The idea that most growth is a function of ever-increasing amounts of energy being used (Kümmel and Hall) that is being more efficiently employed (Ayres) is revolutionary enough, if simple. The fact that the fraction of growth it is responsible for is many multiples of that added by capital and labour is an embarrassment for the exponents of mainstream so-called neoclassical economics. Indeed, this is one of the more exciting prospects raised by peaking world oil and gas production: to tear down the temple that Marshall, Keynes, Friedman and others have built and replace it with an approach to understanding political economy that is intellectually honest, consistent with the basic physical principles of the universe we live in, pragmatic, and accessible to all.

This may be hoping for too much, but The Last Oil Shock is a good start.

His full review including graphs is here. (About Chris Sanders)

From my reading so far the real challenge of peak oil is that our present society seems to be incredibly short sighted about any kind of economic indicators. I just read this week that purchases of cars with larger than 3l motors has increased – partially due to the strength of the NZ$ against the US and a completely misguided view of the stability of oil prices.

The global level of fuel prices also has a major impact on demand perceptions around the world. For example in the UK prices of around $US7 per gallon compare to $US3 per gallon in many parts of the U.S and $US4.70 in NZ with prices in Japan also being quite high. (Note to do these calculations convert to US gallon which is smaller than UK gallon and convert to U.S $ to get a comparison.)

Note (1) Dr David Haywood notes regarding the Ayres Paper almost as a comment in passing. The significance of the Ayres research deserves a special post of its own.

“one of the best research papers I’ve read in years. Ayres and Warr (writing in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics) explain the Solow residual using the Laws of Thermodynamics. Totally amazing stuff that should be compulsory reading for anyone interested in economics.”

The Robert Ayres paper receives a very readable analysis by Strahan in Chapter 5 of the book where I would agree with him when he commented on the Solow Residual model from 1956 “a model that failed to explain over three quarters of what it sought to explain should be junked or thoroughly reworked.”

The significance of the Ayres theory is that efficiency gains in the use of energy can actually drive economic growth and this is the most exciting economics I’ve seen almost since ever. It is sometimes known as the economic theory of growth. I want to know why did it took 30 years to get a sensible result without a nonsensical residual?

For more on the Professor Robert Ayres theory – watch David Haywood’s column at Southerly and the science section at Public Address including such deliciously useful topics as

• Can Thorium Reactors Solve the World’s Energy Problems? and
• What on earth is a Grätzel solar cell, and why is it so important?

For clues on what happens next see the Oil Depletion Protocol. This is Part 1 of a 4 part series. See these related posts in the series.

• (2) Why Alternative Energy Can’t Save Us from Peak Oil
• (3) How to Survive Peak Oil by Acting Locally – 7 ways
• (4) Some Conclusions on Peak Oil – Urgency Needed

See also

• NZ Energy Strategy
• and NZ Energy Strategy- Transport Summary

To buy in NZ The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man at Fishpond

“last oil shock”, “David Strahan”, “peak oil theory”, “hubbert peak”

At last, we seem to have a Cabinet Minister that fully listens to advisers and the public. Full kudos to David Cunliffe who is one of the key government ministers to really understand the most significant issues in his portfolios.

Even better, he “gets” the shape of realistic outcomes for a knowledge based future as well as driving the Telecom broadband shake-out for example.  The broadband smackdown quite possibly has the single largest impact for future business on our “small rock in the Pacific (Thanks Rod).

Cunliffe is a future NZ Prime Minister in my opinion; and you read it here first. His portfolios are listed below.

• Communications - Minister,
• Economic Development - Associate Minister,
• Immigration - Minister,
• Information Technology - Minister

The reason for the excitment is the appointment of David Sheppard to this realpolitik position; (although hard to tell from this yawn PR piece quoted just below.) 

“The Industry Capability Network has appointed industry veteran David Sheppard its first full-time ICT advisor. ICN, a business unit of Trade and Enterprise, was established to help companies realise their potential through access to local opportunities that grow their scale and capability, providing a foundation to move into global markets.”

I was fortunate to be at an informal group meeting with David Sheppard last week when he revealed himself to be a straight shooter with clear and pragmatic objectives for the new role.

Having personally worked on most of the egovernment bids and many other tender processes in this sector, it was refreshing to get some useful feedback.  Many of my clients have written off the government tender process as a waste of effort and that looks set to change for the better.

Sheppard offered some tips and pointers on how to improve our chances of shortlisting and gaining mindshare from the various stakeholders. These are my brief meeting notes and not direct quotes, however I trust they give an indication of the flavour and direction for this new ICN role.

Among the list were items like:

1.  Many government bodies loathe the Tender process as much as we do
2.  It is OK to trust the MNC (Multi National companies.) A real partnership with such vendors improves both our and their chances of winning; and they need local content and innovation as well.
3.  If your response doesn’t comply – don’t expect to be considered. Put that extra content in the appendix – but don’t disqualify yourself. Bidding for government work is a slow and expensive process - make sure you don’t penalise your own team. 
4.  Innovation and creativity is respected and prescriptive formats are more for reasons of safety than policy. Be innovative – but partner with a big buddy to cover the potential risks.
5.  Talk to solution architects where you can about policies and preferences  as the CIO’s are more business oriented and rely on analysis from senior solution advisors.
6.  If there is a problem – can you/we afford to fix it – which is why MNC’s are part of the answer.
7.  Remember that THE key question is ‘will this project embarass the (relevant) Minister?’ – risk management is always part of the background capability assessment.
8.  Check the criteria weighting on each tender. For example a positive sustainability angle may win you the deal. Sustainability as an issue is getting more important than ever.
9.  Help with facilitating partnerships with Tier 1 company’s for larger deals and improved partnering practise generally.
10.   Govt CIO’s meet in Forums twice a year to talk about their plans for the coming year – so that annual plan type objective are known in advance. (Thanks Ray)

There were also some other important policy improvements mentioned, which still require Cabinet approval and the direction of those changes is extremely significant.  The informal response from our meeting was - that we can expect much better results going forward if these new policies get the traction they deserve.

N.B – If Sheppard phones you for some of your valuable insight – take the call. This is a positive step forward for government procurement policy and Sheppard is empowered to get results.

The Industry Capability Network website is the place for updates on this policy change.

Also keep some free time for this upcoming event.

“The Digital Future Summit 2.0 on 28-29 November will explore how this country can maximise “being digital” to address the challenges of becoming a high-tech, high-value, creative economy and society.

Chief executives, and senior business and community leaders are urged to engage with this ‘call to action,’ which will result in a refreshed Digital Strategy for 2008 and beyond. ”  

Hope and justice means ‘getting your feet wet’ and sometimes, that can be extremely uncomfortable. (*from 12 Good Hours of Daylight)

After my last development post, some readers commented on the less desirable consequences of aid. Pointing out how we like to do these things, but the reality on the ground can be vastly different. We don’t really want well meaning charities simply handing resources into the hands of less altruistic local elites who can cynically manipulate the system.

The question is – how to sidestep the murky politics and get help directly to the people who need it the most?

In fact, there is growing disquiet with the way that aid programmes are impacting around the world and a growing debate about the impacts - positive and negative. The extreme message from some is that we should even stop some of these aid programmes.

“The Kenyan economics expert James Shikwati, 35, says that aid to Africa does more harm than good” and argues they should just stop as discussed at Marc Andreessen’s new blog from an much earlier interview in 2005.

P.J O’Rourke once described government as, other people spending other peoples money with no real thought to the consequences because it was, after all OPM.

“A politician who portrays himself as “caring” and “sensitive” because he wants to expand the government’s charitable programs is merely saying that he’s willing to try to do good with other people’s money. Well, who isn’t?”

At TED Global (June 2007 in Arusha, Tanzania) there was heated disagreement between Bono and Ugandan Andrew Mwenda on the politics of aid.

Where does the government money go? He argues that it goes disproportionately – roughly 25% of the Ugandan national budget – to “public administration”, in other words, “mostly patronage”. He points to 70 government ministers and 114 presidential aides, “who never see the president except on television… and then the President advises him, not the other way around.” There’s 333 members of parliament – “you need Wembley Stadium to hold our parliament.” Mwenda believes that cutting international aid would force governments to cut their own spending and address these core questions like corruption.

In a brighter moment, Madame Okonjo-Iweala told her own story about a doctor saving her sister’s life -”When someone is saving a life, you don’t care that it’s aid – you want the person to be alive” and urges us to do business with Africa instead.

To quote from a previous TED speaker Asraf Ghani (talking about Afghanistan)

“The aid system is broken,” says Ashraf Ghani in his powerful, reform-oriented talk. He discusses how to mobilize capital for state-building; why technical assistance fails; and why classic economic theory proved useless in Afghanistan, which is “dominated by the drug economy and a mafia.”

He emphasizes the necessity of investment (“A dollar in private investment is equal to 20 dollars of aid”) and design ingenuity to rebuild broken states. And he offers a blueprint: the 10 key functions that a state should perform, from providing infrastructure to enforcing the rule of law…Afghanistan should not be approached as a charity, but as an investment “

Better infrastructure has been mentioned quite a few times, Iqbal Quadir (also on TED) makes the point that 1 mobile phone can make a huge difference in countries without much infrastructure. In his video presentation Iqbal Quadir explains why “aid does damages: because it empowers authorities instead of people,” and advocates a new approach to development from below, “by the people for the people.”

Microfinance and microenterprises programmes have been highly successful in transforming the geopolitical landscape in many of these countries. Even a simple thing like finding better ways to cook meals with cleaner burning fules can have a huge impact as Amy Smith’s story shows. (Fumes from indoor cooking fires kill more than 2 million children a year in the developing world.)

To put things into local perspective – this year in NZ we are talking about NZ$400m+ over the next budget period. Here are some comments on changes to NZ’s aid budgets from Paul Reynolds which is worth reading in full.

“Tucked away in the recent New Zealand budget was the welcome news that New Zealand had increased its aid and development contribution by $70 million.

The 20.2 per cent increase over the 2007/08 financial year was reported as being the biggest increase to Official Development Assistance (ODA) in decades, Over half the new funding will be spent in the Pacific, particularly in Melanesia, and Asia would also benefit.

The increase takes the New Zealand ODA to $429 million in 2007/08 or 0.30 per cent of gross national income (GNI). Further funding over the three following years would achieve 0.35 per cent by 2010/2011 and aid would have reached $601m.

This is in contrast with previous OECD figures which had NZ’s as one of the least generous of international donors, at US $257 million (NZ $361m) in 2006 – 0.27 per cent of Gross National Income (GNI). This in turn was reported as being far below the 0.46 per cent average effort by OECD countries and the no better than New Zealand achieved in 2005.”

I’d like to think that $400m and the private sector aid programmes are doing the very best they can – and that the unintended consequences are minimised as far as possible.

One great example of NZ aid that works, are these two water supply projects in Mongolia and Cambodia by sustainable engineering consultancy Synergine and a prominent NGO.

Intriguingly, a man described as “New Zealand billionaire Stephen Jennings is turning his focus from Russia’s oligarchs to new assets in Africa where his investment bank Renaissance Capital plans to double its investments to $1.3 billion this year.” Jennings also noted that “Africa’s longest expansion in more than three decades was fuelling demand for capital from overseas.”

It could be worth tracking these RenCap projects. Not all trade is positive, just as not all aid is negative. Person to person (p2p) microfinance for example works.

Microenterprise programmes seem to be the most successful. More debate is welcome on the role of trade which comes from Kofi at Annansi Chronicles.

See also my post at Idealog on Hans Rosling and gapminder software which shows new ways to present numbers to effect policy change. (The s/w makes it easy to view trends at country level for example.) See Granta on African voices and Jennifer Brea

As Derek Lind puts it in his song ‘Hope & Justice’ – be careful what you pray for – you gonna get your feet wet. Hope and justice take commitment and results take real effort.

“That puddle on the mosaic floor
Might just be what you’re praying for
It might be justice dripping at your feet
It might be justice be careful what you speak
You pray justice come rollin’ like a river
It’s a sure-fire bet – gonna get your feet wet“

I’d guess that most people want to see aid programmes continue – but how to make sure that the aid gets to those who need it most; and does so in a way that encourages local enterprizes and self help is the dilemma.

What do you think about the role of development aid? Can we do better?
development aid TED.com microenterprise TEDGlobal

In the past few weeks I have heard from two friends who are relocating to Rwanda and Kazakhstan respectively. After the initial surprise, I wondered why and what the reasons were for making these big changes for both of these friends and their families. I also wondered:

a) Was it something I/we said?
b) I have interesting friends?
c) What can I/we do to help out if they need help in their new countries?

I have long had personal interest in development aid along the lines of self help projects and “teach a man how to fish” lines. I have very mixed feelings about the impact of globalisation and for more than 10 years now have been reading up on the topic.

Some of my key reading has been books like

• “The Future of Capitalism” by Lester Thurow, 1996;
• Peter Druckers “Post Capitalist Society” 1993, & “Management Challenges for the 21st Century” from 1999
• “The Case Against the Global Economy” essays edited by Jerry Mander and Edward Goldsmith, 1996;
• “Building a Win-Win World – Life Beyond Global Economic Warfare” by Hazel Henderson, 1996;
• “Banker to the Poor” by Muhammad Yunus, 1998;
• “One World Ready or Not” – The Manic Logic of Global Capitalism by William Greider, 1997;
• and various others by Peter Drucker, Kevin Kelly and others including
• Paul Omerod’s “Butterfly Economics” from 1998.

These have all contributed to a general sense of unease with the way that we as privileged consumers in the Western developed world act and the wider implications of this all. (Check the form to see where you rate on a global rich scale.)

In August ’05 I had the joy of hearing John Ralston Saul speak about his analysis of the global situation at the launch of his book “The Collapse of Globalism” and the Reinvention of the World. John Ralston Saul is articulate, persuasive and optimistic.

His speech was one of the most eloquent and useful summaries of what works, what doesn’t and more importantly why and what we can start to do about it. Naturally I had to have the book and quickly found out that it is not an easy read at all.

By that, I mean that each idea or argument requires careful thought and ultimately a commitment to personal change that we resist for all types of well intended reasons. (Full list of non fiction by Saul.)

Towards the end of the book, Saul quotes Barack Obama whom he caught early in his career at a speech in 2003..

“instead of having a set of policies that are equipping people for the globalisation of the economy, we have policies that are accelerating the most destructive trends of the global economy”

Saul points out the similarities to ideas from Adam Smith and continues his thesis

“that the globalist crisis has been caused by a mixture of of idealogy, which should only be taken half seriously and bad management, which ought not to be have been taken seriously at all.”

Anyway, my perception is that the debate on balanced development, and what that means globally and locally is a debate worth having and so starting this week we have a new category on development.

I will continue to write about other topic areas but sometimes you just have to go where your heart is.

So to Peter in Rwanda and Tim in Kazakhstan – thanks for your example and we wish you all the best in your new adventures. Here’s to the reinvention of the world on a personally meaningful and global basis.

Just tonight as I was driving, I heard some parts of a radio speech that were so sharp I had to pull over to the kerb for safety reasons.  Talking on a mobile while driving is not safe and neither was the speech I was hearing.

Turns out it was Professor Jeffrey Sachs giving Lecture No 3 of the BBC Reith Lectures called “The Great Convergence” described by programme synopsis notes as:

Power and America have seemed synonymous for the last fifty years. No longer. Power in the 21st Century is shifting to the East: to India and above all to China. Facing up to the end of centuries of North Atlantic dominance – first Europe then the U.S. – will pose huge challenges.

 The opening theme goes like this ..(full transcript is available from BBC)

“Global problems can only be solved with global public understanding.

Next is the deployment of technologies to address the challenge. Though advanced technologies are sometimes considered to be a malign force, yet a further threat, they are of fundamental importance in enabling 6.6 billion people, and perhaps 9.2 billion people, to meet the twin aspirations of improved material life and ecological sustainability.”

He then continues about the difficulties of achieving global co-operation to make some of the changes that we know can be made – but lack the political will or trust to do so mentioning some examples.

In President Bush’s 2008 budget just submitted, military spending is $623 billion***(see footnote below), more than all of the rest of the world combined, while aid to all of Africa is $4.5 billion…..

Kennedy’s speech on June 10, 1963, which I have quoted throughout this evening and throughout the Reith Lectures, was not only a scintillating exposition on peace, and not only a challenge to his generation to make peace, but was also part of the process itself, a way of problem solving. Kennedy literally used the speech to make peace.

Kennedy’s chosen process was ingenious. The entire speech is to his fellow Americans, not to the Soviet Union. He didn’t tell the Soviets that they were either with us or against us. He didn’t lay down preconditions for negotiations. He didn’t make a list of things that the Soviets must do. There were no threats of sanctions. In fact, the opposite was true. The entire speech was about US behavior and US attitudes..

We need to end pre-conditions to talk. We need to end the prevailing confusion that claims that negotiating with an adversary is the same as appeasing that adversary. The true lesson of the 1938 Munich Agreement, when British Prime Minister Chamberlain acceded to Hitler’s assault on Czechoslovakia, is not to end future negotiations with adversaries, but to reject concessions that cripple one’s security….

We can help, and we should do so.”

If we are interested in breaking some of these cycles and a changed outlook for the better; then, some of the challenges from this set of lectures may help in framing a deeper level of debate. Best to hear the full set speeches themselves - which you can do as the transcripts don’t do full justice to the content.

Many years ago I interviewed a famous musician and as as you do, I asked him what type of art he might find interesting as an aside. His answer was that he would find the prospect of watching a debate between Malcolm Muggeridge and James Baldwin (it was the early 80′s) delicious, or words to that effect. I was a bit surprised but also impressed and intrigued to think that an articulate debate or speech could have such an inspired effect.

Regarding this particular Reith Lecture I noticed that the Kennedy speech, was being sprinkled a bit like pixie dust to help add some weight. As it happens the speechwriter behind that particular speech was in the house and he also made some comments included below. He was asked if he wrote the speech.

THEODORE SORENSEN: Oh I never acknowledge that. President Kennedy was the author of all of his speeches. (LAUGHTER & APPLAUSE) Or I, or what I should say in answer to that question is, ‘Ask not’. (LAUGHTER) So my recommendation to you, Jeff, when you make this lecture again, is to cite two other parts of that speech. One is a passage where President Kennedy said, ‘The world knows America will not start a war. This generation of Americans has seen enough of war.’ Haven’t heard that recently! The second was where he not only asked for a re-examination of our relations with the Soviet Union, but praised the Soviet people for the enormous contribution and sacrifice they made in World War Two, which no-one had ever done before, and the Soviets rather resented it, and it was one of the ways that he reached Khrushchev. Seems to me we live in a world where the people of Islam have been rejected and humiliated for generations, and if someone took the time to praise their contributions to civilisation over the centuries, that might help.

I especially like that last part by Sorensen which leans more towards respect than we are seeing from some of the current leaders of Iran and the U.S for example.

I also noticed in the Guardian last week, that President Putin announced it was considering withdrawing from a Soviet- era weapons treaty. This was in response to US plans to site  a missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.  

It seems ironic that the Kennedy speech which is partly credited with ending the cold war and is now being amplified by the Reith lecture above is again echoing current events and we seem to have learned little despite optimistic signs.

Also writing in the Guardian, Simon Jenkins notes that:

Countries too have feelings. So I am told by a Russian explaining the recent collapse in relations between Vladimir Putin and his one-time western admirers. “We have done well in the past 15 years, yet we get nothing but rebuffs and insults. Russia’s rulers have their pride, you know.”

“Britain and America have been led by essentially reactive politicians with no grasp of history……

Russia and the west have everything to gain from good relations. Putin has struggled to modernise his economy while holding together a traumatised and shrunken Russian federation. The west may feel he errs towards authoritarianism, but second-guessing Russian leaders is seldom a profitable exercise. This is a huge country, rich in natural and human resources. It is hard to think of somewhere the west would be better advised to “hug close”. Instead, Putin will hand his successor an isolated and bruised nation. Under a less confident president, it could retreat into protectionism and alliances the west will hate. To have encouraged that retreat is truly stupid.”

It seems incredible to think that- even while Professor Sachs is delivering his speech, we still seem stuck in old patterns that need to be broken. We should be taking a great deal of notice of not only the vaguely abstract global challenges but the very real example mentioned by Jenkins as well.

Footnote:*** I have also come across this piece on the annual restoration budget to heal the planet at the Earth Policy Institute website. Compared to the $623b of military spending mentioned above – fixing some of this seems a much better idea.

“Altogether, restoring the earth will require additional expenditures of $93 billion per year. Many will ask, Can the world afford this? But the only appropriate question is, Can the world afford to not make these investments?”

Or alternative title – “How to amplify relationships & build trust in banking” using the power of  of social peer networks.

About 5 years ago I wrote about the potential of the web to change the finance sector in new and exciting ways. The example at the time was Grameen who pioneered microfinance loans in Bangladesh which was set-up by Muhammad Yunus. Since then Yunus has won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006.

Part of the thinking was to be able to use technology to amplify relationships and be able to deliver a level of trust outside the conventional wisdom of the day. This allows donors or funders to take part in micro-credit and makes it much easier to do so.

Some of these ideas were discussed in Kevin Kelly’s “New Rules for the New Economy” 1999 book where he correctly picked the rise of peer networks and the positive effect this could have on the quality and quantity of those commercial relationships.

Given that the web and all the social tools and relationships built up around the wider use of technology has now progressed;  it should be no surprise that web based loan markets have started to develop in a much wider context.   Imagine an angel capital market register for consumers, because that has started happening now. Here are 3 examples.

ZopaWeb in the UK is based on the big idea of social lending. To quote from their about section:

• Social Lending is a financial category of genuine and increasing importance.
• It’s been happening on a small-scale in a families and social groups for hundreds of years and the internet has opened it up to everybody.
• It’s the biggest development in the world of money for decades, as people deal directly with other people, cutting out the banks.

And…from their FAQ
3. Why has no one done this before?
The principle behind Zopa is very similar to local micro-lending schemes that operate in Asia and Latin America. Families, neighbours or friends will lend amongst themselves, often a very structured way, to the benefit of the community. Because the groups are closely knit, trust is not usually an issue.

The growth of the internet, the advance of verification and credit scoring technology, and changing attitudes to corporate institutions have combined to mean this method of lending and borrowing is now viable for everyone.

The Zopa site was launched in March 2005 and currently has 105,000 users according to a news report.

As Kelly expressed it in 1999 – “The central economic imperative of the network economy is to amplify relationships.” *Or as you may prefer it better “Its not Kansas anymore; its Oz” from the Wizard of Oz.

Prosper in the U.S is based on similar thinking and claims 180,000 members and $36m in loans to date. It was launched in February 2006 and interestingly Benchmark Capital is an investor in both Zopa and Prosper. The Prosper system allows users to put a human face on their loan needs.

The way Prosper works is intuitive to people who have used eBay. Instead of listing and bidding on items, people list and bid on loans using Prosper’s online auction platform.

People who want to lend set the minimum interest rate they are willing to earn and bid in increments of $50 to $25,000 on loan listings they select. People who lend can easily diversify using “standing orders”, which automatically make many small loans to different borrowers.

Kiva whose tagline is  ”Loans that Change Lives” has a different business model. According to their stated objectives loans are interest free to micro credit lenders who then charge their own interest rates. PayPal provides free processing service and while you stand to get your loan back – eventually; the service is still refining its business model. It plans on charging 2% interest to field partners (actual micro-credit loan managers) who then onlend at rates much lower than other finance sources, if there are any. 

 ”Kiva is using the power of the internet to facilitate one-to-one connections that were previously prohibitively expensive. Child sponsorship has always been a high overhead business. Kiva creates a similar interpersonal connection at much lower costs due to the instant, inexpensive nature of internet delivery. The individuals featured on our website are real people who need a loan and waiting for socially-minded individuals like you to lend them money.”

In this part of the world, SPBD (South Pacific Business Development) is responsible for micro credit loans in Samoa as a Kiva field partner.

It is clear that using the web for social re-engineering in the three examples listed above represents quite a significant shift in the way that loans can be raised. It is also likely that over time the business models will change a bit so that the balance between social conscience and viable returns will be sustainable.

Personally I’d like to see interest rates on Kiva loans come down – however the irony is that the field partners costs are still quite high exactly because of a lack of technology at that end of the equation.  In the Zopa and Prosper examples, because there is pervasive technology on both the lender and the borrowers’ situation – the net result is not only that loan costs can be reduced in some cases below the commercial rates but that they get access to loans at all.

And for those borrowers who were previously unable to access a loan at any rate – this is certainly creative banking.

Kiva

micro-credit

Zopa

micro lending

Prosper.com

p2p lending

It is the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007 which is a popular time to take stock and think about what we might want to do differently in the coming year?

When we are growing up we have many well meaning people trying to guide us. We may even be doing this to our friends. As we get older – hopefully we can notice more about what we need to change and be guided more by self awareness and motivated by the results.

Having a goal or new years resolution is one thing. If we really believe in the goal then we need take the next steps.

As  David Maister suggests in his excellent essay called Strategy and the Fat Smoker BTW he was the fat smoker and his personal goals got a rev-up when his health was threatened.

The necessary outcome of strategic planning in not analytical insight but resolve. …..The essential questions of strategy are these: “Which of our habits are we really prepared to change, permanently and forever? Which lifestyle changes are we really prepared to make? What issues are we really ready to tackle?”

This can be confronting and unpleasant but also insightful and empowering if we actually take the next step which is doing something differently to get to a goal.

The essence of successful strategic change is not technique, but will (determination, commitment or resolve) To achieve any goal – ‘We’ must really want the goal

The smartest people I know are those who really enjoy what they do. It can take a while to define what that particular mix of pleasure and work looks like. Years even.

Jim Collins describes this as a Hedghog Concept ( and definition of disciplined thought)

Hedgehogs are relatively simple animals who know just one big thing and stick to it. Good-to-great companies do something similar – they consistently stick to doing what they do best and avoid getting distracted into new fields of business that are away from their core competencies. Good-to-great companies move ahead of their competitors by pursuing only those projects that have three traits:
1. What they can be “best in the world” at.
2. What drives profitability for their business model.
3. What their people are deeply passionate about.

Or another version I like – sometimes we have to stop doing something we don’t like! (Yahoo!) however more often than not we may have to do something we find unpleasant like stopping smoking and getting more exercise. Or getting a new job. I did that almost 3 years ago and a continuing goal for me is to have a job that I love. In the words of Bob Dylan…

I ain’t gonna work on Maggie’s farm no more….
I ain’t gonna work for Maggie’s brother no more….
I ain’t gonna work for Maggie’s pa no more….
I ain’t gonna work for Maggie’s ma no more….
I ain’t gonna work on Maggie’s farm no more.

To stop doing things we don’t like – we may need a circuit breaker or way to redefine ourselves. Using creative tools and techniques works for me and also for Hugh Macleod. Its time to get out the crayons!

26 tried-and-true tips for being truly creative

Merit can be bought.
Passion can’t.

The only people who want to change the world are people who want to. And not everyone does.

p.32 essay by MacLeod, an advertising executive and popular blogger with a flair for the creative, gives his 26 tried-and-true tips for being truly creative. Each point illustrated by a cartoon drawn by the author himself.

How to do What You Love – Paul Graham

To do something well you have to like it. That idea is not exactly novel. We’ve got it down to four words: “Do what you love.” But it’s not enough just to tell people that. Doing what you love is complicated.“Constraints give your life shape. Remove them and most people have no idea what to do: look at what happens to those who win lotteries or inherit money. Much as everyone thinks they want financial security, the happiest people are not those who have it, but those who like what they do.”

Many of the source essays I have quoted today come from ChangeThis.com In my view the essays there have all been great at promoting insights and actual outcomes. For me getting closer to what I love and want to do is important and this is an ongoing goal.

“ChangeThis is committed to providing you with the tools to change your life. Whether you yearn to tap into your creativity, be motivated to start your own company, make more of your work day or more from your money, or even just be able to write a more concise email…visit ChangeThis to get excited again, excited enough to do something different, to make a small change that could just change your life.

The note below comes from their end of year newsletter. Three more essay links that rated very highly with readers in 2006. They are creative commons licenses so download and pass on if you like them.
  
Most well-written: The Power of the Marginal by Paul Graham (If you’re reading ChangeThis, you’ve probably spent some time in the margin, taking a risk, looking at life differently than your officemates. This manifesto includes diverse cultural references and spot-on insights sure to keep you off the beaten path.) In the essay Paul discusses how outsiders, free from convention and expectations, often generate the most revolutionary of ideas. Clever and entertaining, this manifesto will energize you and spark your creativity.

Most intriguing: Know the Codes by Clotaire Rapaille and Getting Out of Embed by Michael Mauboussin (Both authors use psychology to illuminate how we make every day decisions. You’ll never look at yourself the same way again.)

Rapaille reveals the unconscious motivators behind how we act and what we buy by unearthing the unique culture codes found within each of us. This could also be very insighful for personal change as well.

Getting Out of Embed: The Role of Social Context in Decision Making. Decision making is an inherently social exercise. Here, Michael Mauboussin details three shocking psychological studies that reveal just how another’s action or opinion can profoundly change your own.

“You must be the change you want to see in the world.” Mahatma Gandhi.

* Check out this T-shirt if you still want more. Best wishes for 2007