thinking: relating- celebrating :-)

Until very recently the trade-off between richness and reach with media and communications tools on the internet has seen mixed results but we are very close to some exciting breakthroughs.

This means news is old when it gets through the media process as savvy consumers have already engaged to some extent in a myriad of ways (mostly online) and this alters the secondary ripples and impacts as well.

The difference between a one to many message and a conversation will continue to be endlessly debated across a range of media and platforms.  It has become much clearer that the overlap between micro-blogging (clogging ?) tools, mobile phones, other user generated content and mainstream media is now producing social dividends and all kinds of unintended and positive consequences.

Social capital has its own momentum and we see everything from instant tweets on earthquakes and elections to a scary washing machine with 15 thousand fans on facebook. Most mainstream media is filtered by the editorial process to become more of a news product. This is good for manicured medium but for a real-time news ticker social media tools are raising the stakes and in a very good way.

Twitter, Facebook blogs and other instant commentary now allows real time crowdsourcing for the equivalent of a live cross on camera – only better online for the most part. I was reminded of some of this when I heard a news item on radio about how Twitter had delayed a crucial update so as not to interrupt the flow of news from Iran.

That this was a news item is interesting in itself but ironically the Twitter maintenance had been and gone by the time the news got on the radio and that was very stale news to the Twitterati who had all moved on hours before.

There were three insightful perspectives I took notice of this week regarding the rise of social capital in these ways.

David MacGregor captured some of these dimensions reproduced below: (Thanks David)

“The social media phenomenon really does change my perception of the way forward. I have less and less regard for brand messages that are virtuoso – you know the kind I mean – the spectacular set pieces of yesteryear, film making fetishism in microcosm. Today I am more like to be receptive to messages that have far greater relevance and, oftentimes, utility – which might be expressed by the facility for me to understand more or engage more with the message personally.

The scale of my engagement is relative. The simple facility to comment or offer and opinion is sometimes sufficient and demonstrates the thought that I, like other people, want to be heard and acknowledged, rather than simply being yelled at or sung a silky siren song by spruikers.”

David writes very well on this an many other related topics. He also notes that all of this discussion is much less compartmentalized than it used to be. And that is a good thing in my view.

“I find it difficult to separate marketing, advertising and brands from society as whole. A challenge for business is surely to overcome the ‘them and us’ model of mass communications to really open the way for more inclusive dialogues.”

Nat Torkington on National Radio caught my ears with his comments on the role of Twitter and other micro-blogging formats in Iran. What was particularly good was the way he managed to make “secure open web proxies” sound interesting and also kept the listeners from being distracted by the mechanics in that wonderful mellifluous mode of his.

Less mediation is also highly attractive to celebrities. Micro blogging of tweets via re-tweeting has helped make a difference and we will continue to hear about the ramifications of all this.

TN: Technology with Nat Torkington from Thursday Technology expert and  Nat Torkington discusses online dating scams as well as Twitter’s role in the Iranian election protests.(duration:14mins 28secs)

The impact of these new technologies on groups and individuals is sounding a bit more like the second wave of alternative media as foreshadowed all those years ago by Noam Chomsky. In a sense we have now the tools to manufacture dissent.

Clay Shirky manages to summarise many of these key points about the rise of social capital and media activism over at TED Talks.

Clay says:

“New technologies are enabling new kinds of cooperative structures to flourish as a way of getting things done in business, science, the arts and elsewhere, as an alternative to centralized and institutional structures, which he sees as self-limiting.

In his writings and speeches he has argued that “a group is its own worst enemy.”
Shirky is author of Here Comes Everybody.

One point Clay makes is the increase in professional amateurs – something we wrote about some time back and was a topic for another great TED talk by Charles Leadbeater which was  called “The rise of the amateur professional” see the 19minute video on TED. Charles said

“Passionate amateurs, using new tools, are creating products and paradigms that companies can’t.”

If the video embed doesn’t display on your device try this TED link for Clay Shirky.

As Clay notes we are watching “The end of top-down control of news is changing the nature of politics.” How to cross pollinate conversations and mass media in real time. We now have a “many to many”  communications channel.

Note: Local TV stations has all improved their websites recently as they finally begin to understand they are less TV and multi-channel amplicasting is bigger ironically just as viewership on their broadcasts drop – their website traffic is going up and changing the business.

Amplification of tweets gives rise to far more authentic news sources than we have seen – ever!  Citizen reporting has flow on effects and when those stories follow the news we begin to see social transformation.

Asynchronous media and the amplification of all the surrounding content eco-systems is a big deal and we should be using this for good connections. Consumers are producers are consumers. The network itself is ubiquitous and omnipresent.

There are no single messages any more and media participation is higher than ever. Media revolution is here.

What do you think ? My twitter ID is @dialogCRM feel free to tweetback.

As always you can tweet this below and leave a comment or reply to the tweet for this post on Twitter. You can also engage directly with the three / four sources I have used today.

• To follow and engage with David on Twitter go to @joegreenz
• To follow and engage with Nat on Twitter go to @gnat
• To follow and engage Nat on Twitter go to @CShirky
• To follow and engage withTED on Twitter @TEDchris

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As beings it seems to me that  - we are all wired to look for patterns partly to decipher meaning but also because the sheer amount of information we get can be so overwhelming.

We are also constantly comparing the “news” to our own reference points and expectations to  weight the content and relevance to our own situations.

Now the media stories seems to overshoot much of these expectations with so much coverage splashing over the metaphorical sides of the tea cup that we actively discount “news” when it gets too saturated.

One example is swine flu coverage. It is definitely an important story but the way in which it is being covered paradoxically switches many of us off the full significance of the event. There are two key facts about previous pandemics we should be picking up on (key patterns?.)

1. In 1918 and other pandemics it was the second and repeat waves that were more lethal once the virus has been through larger numbers of humans and mutated a bit more.
2. The secondary story on swine flu is how disorganised we have been  with group planning on previous disasters with very fragmented responses.

In 2007 Laurie Garrett: What can we learn from the 1918 flu pandemic? presented this talk at TED based on real analysis of earlier pandemics and global health planning.  Most of use can point to more local health issues to see that not much has changed.

Moving right along – Does this thinking apply to other “news” stories and events like the global financial crisis for example?

In recent weeks I have been fascinated to see surveys of business confidence go lower and lower and last week they have suddenly topped out at the highest for some time.

“(NZ) Business sentiment has perked up this month – the National Bank’s survey has recorded its biggest monthly gain since December 2000.“

We want to see better news after months of coverage fatigue about the global financial crisis and so expectations appear to be over shooting again.

Two weeks earlier we had Aust economic index at 26-year low New Zealand is not more resilient than Australia although I’m beginning to think that we all have outrageous optimism partly because most local business markets are shallow and tough.

We could argue that Australia’s commodity boom has slowed them into the slide andc so NZ is ahead of the cycle and our primary commodities and huge fall in exchange rates has provided an early upswing of confidence that differentiates the NZ economy.

Translation NZ business sectors and local markets are small, highly developed and very demanding and so any glimmer of hope from export markets or the “weighless economy” has us revving our economic engines.

Central banks are aware of this tendency and so the Reserve Bank Governor Bollard was at pains to signal interest rates should stay low for at least a year to 18 month longer.

The lag between recovery of some market segments / indicators and actual local recovery can still be long enough to cause serious medium term issues for many of us.

The March exports number was way higher than the imports number and that has boosted confidence as have changes to housing and employment markets. (Trade deficit melts as imports shrink)

“In the same article economist Bagrie notes Structural imbalances, like negative household savings rates and a large current account deficit, needed to be corrected and that would not be quick or easy..” and we know rationally that is true but still the survey overshoots the hope index.

In today’s TED talk videos is a new 7 minute  presentation by Sean Gourley: The mathematics of war

“By pulling raw data from the news and plotting it onto a graph, Sean Gourley and his team have come up with a stunning conclusion about the nature of modern war — and perhaps a model for resolving conflicts.”

I won’t pretend to understand what Sean is saying in this 7 minute clip but I know the patterns he is discovering appear everywhere and deciphering the economic news is every bit as mathmatical as it is for any major human induced crisis.

The group dynamic does plot patterns and we can use some of that to make sense of the overall trendlines.

Sean does a good job of explaining the “so what” part of this analysis but at 7 minutes this is really a teaser and we need to go deeper.

For example I’d like to see the analysis of Iraq right as the end compared with  Irelands history and the transformation of the IRA into a more credible polticla rather than military force.

I think with maths the risk is that we can describe events much better but unless we go compare with other histories we can still miss the underlying out takes.

In the “Fog of War” did a much more personal analysis which we seem to have forgotten.

Now I’d like to see Robert (b 1916) make some personal sense of Sean’s math but for now I’m pleased that we have a chance to think about clustering information and media through some new filters.

I also caught part of a radio dicussion yesterday which described “belief” as a recessive gene. The idea being that as a society we have become much more evidence based but that is not something we see on the actual regular news.

For me Jon Stewarts satirical Daily show makes far more sense of the news than regular media as it acknowledges the bizarreness of the human condition.

So a recap formula might look like this

Sean Gourley + Robert McNamara – Jon Stewart  = many a true word is spoken in jest – we just need to know which ones and if our math/model makes sense.

The other week I was dropping a neighbours kid home from an after school programme. He asked me why my car wasn’t a flash new one.

I wanted to say that I’m trying to reduce the size of my carbon footprint and I’m hoping this is the last petrol powered car I will ever own – but that seemed like wishful thinking.

However this week there was a new video release from TED’09 of a bold new plan for electric cars. What is intriguing and significant is that the car industry themselves could miss this new direction (with some notable exceptions.)

Only yesterday I was reading about how Holden in Australia could be the first local car industry to go bust.

”Australia’s car plants are losing money faster than a drunk at a casino and there’s no feasible way of turning this around.

”The Australian car industry can re-focus on small cars, green cars, blue cars or red cars. None of this will make the slightest difference.”

Mr Clive Matthew-Wilson (NZ) believes the government money would have been better spent by giving it to the affected car workers

I wondered what would happen if AU car industry started putting electric motors into their cars but the view seems to be that globalisation of manufacturing costs just makes Australia non-competitive.

I’d still think that higher tech approach for electric cars is worth pursuing and maybe Renault and Holden should be talking?

 In fact Australia is part of the Better Place electric car project already. The car 2.0 is avery bold plan for Australia that will make a difference. Obviously Clive missed all the news about Better Place in Australia.

Shai Agassi’s  plan offers a huge ray of hope for the future of modern civilisation and energy futures generally.

What I love about this story is that the innovation happens around the business model. That is: separating the batteries from the cars in terms of the overall cost model.

Shais thinking is bold and clear and his actions have prompted backing from governments who can see the future. Check Shai s background here. A very impressive career at SAP prior to his Better Place project.

New Zealand Transportation policy is firmly oriented towards supporting electric cars. To quote from some of that report.

5% market share (for electric cars) is way too conservative and NZ has an opportunity to do better. We have one of the cleanest electricity generation systems in the world.  We should be on the phone to Mr Agassi  ASAP.

“Major vehicle manufacturers (17) recently made a commitment to commercially develop electric cars, with reports suggesting that these may be available from as early as 2010. Our scenario assumes electric vehicle sales reach five per cent of market share in 2020, followed by a period of rapid growth that reaches a plateau of 60 per cent by 2040. “

However the practicalities and other logistics of the cars have been difficult until this project.

“Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car — but he doesn’t want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it.

When horrific climate-change scenarios elicit little but endless chatter from governments and entrenched special interests, the difference between talk and action represent an embarrassing gulf. Meet Shai Agassi, who has stepped fearlessly into that gap. His approach to solving the puzzle of electric automobiles could spark nothing short of an automotive revolution.

Agassi stunned the software industry in 2007 by resigning from SAP to focus on his vision for breaking the world’s fossil-fuel habit, a cause he had championed since his fuse was lit at a Young Global Leaders conference in 2005. Through his enthusiastic persistence, Agassi’s startup Better Place has signed up some impressive partners — including Nissan-Renault and the countries of Israel and Denmark.

“Shai Agassi has only one car, no charging stations, and not a single customer—yet everyone who meets him already believes he can see the future.” – Wired”

Here is the best video you will see ever on the future of electric cars.

The NZ government should be rolling out the red carpet for Shai. More background on Shai’s plan.

So will we get electric cars anytime soon?

I’m much more hopeful than before. We need to look at energy futures much more seriously than we have been doing and Shai’s vision is a very good place to start.

While the TED 09 Conference was on we featured Twitter feeds from two of the attendees as a stream of updates in the sidebar.

Now the conference is over we have taken down the live feeds but included snapshots of some of those comments down below.

Remo from Sydney who has attended several conferences in the past at Remorandum These are in the nature of status updates and are 160 character answers to the what are you doing? Examples of both are below.

Remo used photos taken on his mobile which is another options.

1. Wisdom is “moral jazz” … knowing when to make exceptions to rules. A wise person is made not born. Barry Schwartz at #TED 11:53 AM Feb 7th from TwitterMail
2. http://twitpic.com/1dkhl – #TED: Nearing the end. Standing ovation for Chris and the TED team 11:49 AM Feb 7th from TwitPic
3. http://twitpic.com/1diko – Six Eyes at #TED. 3ality demonstrates updates in 3D technology 10:32 AM Feb 7th from TwitPic
4. http://twitpic.com/1dhs7 – Nicholas Negraponte back at #TED to report on One Laptop Per Child 9:56 AM Feb 7th from TwitPic
5. http://twitpic.com/1dg9k – Chris Anderson responds to criticism that GFC somewhat ignored at #TED 8:45 AM Feb 7th from TwitPic
6. Exclusive: RSW Unplugged. TED Founder interviewed by ME at #TED2009 re: genesis & metamorphosis of #TED. Unedited video: http://bit.ly/FsCG 2:20 AM Feb 7th from TweetDeck
7. Back from #TED Party at Long Beach: Chock Full of Interesting Folk … including many who claimed to feel very bonded to REMO brand. Nice. 12:03 AM Feb 7th from TweetDeck
8. RT @TEDchris: #TED Interview with Bill Gates re economic crisis, Malcolm Gladwell, oddball teachers & his legacy http://tinyurl.com/b4jj4r 11:34 PM Feb 6th from TweetDeck

And Sean Gourley who is a TED Fellow this year.

1. back in Santa barbra. Here 7 days ago, feels like yesterday. Time is wierd like that at #ted about 20 hours ago from mobile web
2. @chrisalbon his models were a little bit black box. We also know that models need to be sensitivity analysis. I’m not convinced. about 20 hours ago from mobile web
3. ted prize a lifetime achievement award? Or something to help you realize a dream. #ted 12:40 PM Feb 7th from mobile web
4. where to start on the journey to interact with politics. #ted 12:36 PM Feb 7th from mobile web
5. we are handicapped by waiting for the experts to give solutions. We all have capacity for collaboration and innovation. #ted 12:35 PM Feb 7th from mobile web
6. liz Coleman asking some really interesting questions about the current state of our liberal arts colleges. #ted 12:28 PM Feb 7th from mobile web
7. Thomas Jefferson getting some love. #ted 12:27 PM Feb 7th from mobile web
8. wouldn’t have been able to do my research using a reductioist approach. Connections are too important to leave out. #ted 12:25 PM Feb 7th from mobile web

This year there are some vidos already live and a number of photo collections including this Bestof TED2009 on Flickr . The whol;e event can be quite overwhelming and thankfully the TED website only release a few of the video presentations each week as they would get lost if they all come out at once.

The TED prizes for Conference 09 were online again this year.  I watched but must confess that I was somewhat surprised  that the SETI search got a prize this year. (SETI=Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence)

I may have imagined it but at one point I thought I heard Jill say they were still searching for signs of intelligent life on earth.

Astronomer Jill Cornell Tarter,

“I wish that you would empower Earthlings everywhere to become active participants in the ultimate search for cosmic company.”

Deep Sea explorer Sylvia Earle,

“I wish you would use all means at your disposal — films! expeditions! the web! more! — to ignite public support for a global network of marine protected areas, hope spots large enough to save and restore the ocean, the blue heart of the planet.”

Maestro José Antonio Abreu

“I wish you would help create and document a special training program for at least 50 gifted young musicians, passionate for their art and for social justice, and dedicated to developing El Sistema in the US and in other countries.”

I find it surprising that no mass orchestra programme appears to exist in the US that is like the Sistema approach.

There is a connection between social justice and the orchestra as a learning and co-operative model that might be its real strength.